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As we learned in our recent poll, Razzball readers play three main roster formats (adds up to > 100% b/c some play multiple formats):

Format # of Respondents %
Yahoo! standard (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P) 626 42%
ESPN standard (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) 452 30%
NFBC/2 Catcher format (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) 261 18%
Other 620 42%

Note:  About 8.5% plan to play both ESPN and Yahoo formats.

There are many different permutations in ‘Other’ but the similarities across them tend to be:

  • Requiring a certain # of SP and RP (about 50%)
  • Lineups with less than 13 hitting spots and less than 9 pitching spots (about 50%)
  • Dividing OF into RF / CF / LF (about 15%)
  • Other 2 Catcher variations (about 10%)

In this post, I’m going to tackle what I think is the biggest outstanding question:  How do player rankings vary based on ESPN and Yahoo! roster formats?

Background

Before I dig in, I think it is worth noting that I believe the vast majority of mixed player rankings (i.e., ranking all hitters and pitchers together) outside of the Yahoo! bloggers are based on the ESPN format as that is closer to the standard in most expert leagues.  (Most expert leagues use 2 C but I think most experts greatly discount the increased position scarcity this creates and just draft a 2nd catcher for $1 or at the end of the draft).  So this would mean that it’s possible that Yahoo! ADPs might be unduly biased by Yahoo! fantasy leaguers using off-site rankings.  Seems like an opportunity!

For the sake of the analysis, I’m going to focus on the most popular format – 12 Team MLB.

Hitters

The differences between the Yahoo! and ESPN default roster formats are:

-2 less OF
– No CI
– No MI
– 1 extra UTIL

In all, there are three less hitters in Yahoo! vs. ESPN which increases both the quality of rostered hitters as well as the players on waivers.

The biggest wildcard in understanding how this impacts the value at each position is how each team fills its 2 UTIL positions.  The best assumption for how teams will fill those UTIL position is using the best available hitters.  To estimate hitter value, I am using a formula that I got from Tom Tango of InsideTheBook.com – HR+SB+R/3+RBI/3+(H-0.27*AB).  The below chart shows the curve for hitter value based on each fantasy baseball position (for players with multiple position eligibility, I order the most valuable to least valuable for positions as: C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.  So a 1B/OF is placed at OF.)

Here is the OF value curve:

In the ESPN format, the cutoff for roster-worthy hitters is at about 50 points.  For Middle Infielders, this is typically at about the 18th 2B/SS which are used to fill in the last MI spots.  The same would go for 3B as it fills out some of the CI spots.  1B typically has enough depth to help contribute to the UTIL position but it’s mostly carried by the OF position (Ortiz was the only DH worthy of being rostered in 2011).

In the Yahoo! format, the fewer roster spots raise the floor for roster-worthy hitters to about 60.  If we look at the 13th most valuable 1B/2B/SS/3B, we can see that 1B still has greater value than 2B/SS/3B.  For 2011, I estimated that 4 of the 24 UTIL spots would be filled by 1B.  The 37th OF is still close to 80 points and about 20 OFs can be drafted before their value dips below 60.

The net impact is that the lack of mandatory CI/MI spots and a 2nd UTIL spot results into deeper rostering of OF in proportion to 1B/2B/SS/3B (catcher was never a threat for a team to take more than necessary).  Thus, the average OF becomes relatively more valuable in Yahoo whereas the average 1B/2B/SS/3B becomes relatively less valuable (with catchers staying at the same relative value).

* Note:  One thing I didn’t test but can theorize is the impact of Yahoo’s 10 game position eligibility policy vs. ESPN’s 20 game policy.  My guess is that it has little to no impact for those who gain additional 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF eligibility as those positions have little scarcity (and any infielder displaced by an OF with IF eligibility will likely be drafted as a UTIL in place of an OF so it balances out).  The only case where I think it has notable impact is at Catcher where the likely 11th/12th catchers wouldn’t have UTIL appeal.  In that case, it likely would reduce the scarcity at catcher with minor (if any) impact to the other positions (notably b/c it’s unlikely anyone with partial C eligibility would be drafted otherwise).  On quick review, I don’t see any notable catchers who would have Yahoo but not ESPN eligibility except for maybe Jesus Montero (who only had 3 games at C in 2011 but could be a judgment call) and he’ll likely earn C-eligibility anyway.

Pitchers

The enforcement of at least 2 SP and 2 RP eliminates the chances that someone employs an all-SP or all-RP rotation.  This is a rare tactic and one which I think IP min/max limits already address.  So I would say, in general, that 2 SP / 2 RP/ 4 P is really no different than 8 pitchers.

One key difference between hitters and Starting Pitchers is that it is more effective rotating SPs (or SP/RP) because of the days off between starts.  Even in weekly leagues, managers can rotate ‘2-start’ pitchers in place of ‘1-start’ pitchers.  The net impact is that fantasy league managers tend to get the equivalent of 9 pitchers out of the 8 roster spots.  I tested this hypothesis in one Yahoo! expert league we’re in and found the average team had about 1,340 IP which is about where the average team in the Razzball Commenter League (with 9 pitchers) averaged 1,341 IP.

Since there is little to no difference in terms of pitcher usage between the ESPN and Yahoo! formats while shallower hitting lineups are used, there is greater scarcity among pitchers than hitters (also could be phrased that replacement value for pitchers is relatively lower).  Thus, pitchers increase in value vs. hitters.

Conclusion

At the end of the post are charts with the top 50 ranked hitters (based on Point Shares) in the Yahoo! vs. ESPN default roster formats .  As you’ll see, pitchers generally creep up the ranking at the expense of hitters with C and OF values benefiting vs. 1B/2B/SS/3B.

After going through the full results, there isn’t a clear-cut formula I can provide on how to convert ESPN-based rankings to Yahoo.  I’ll be producing Point Shares in both formats for 2012 so you’ll be able to see the differences.

My general guidance for Yahoo! snake drafts would be (same for roto and H2H):

1) In the first 5 rounds, try to only draft 1B/2B/SS/3B if they are close to the best hitter available (position-agnostic).

2) I would aim to take an SP in the first 3 rounds and two in the first 5 rounds.  After that, you can draft SPs every 4-5 rounds with the goal of drafting at least 6 SPs.

3) I would keep the same general strategy for OF – draft one every 4-5 rounds.

4) I would keep the same general strategy for Catchers – don’t draft a catcher until they at least come at a 2 round bargain.  There will always be decent catchers available at the end of the draft and on waivers.

5) I wouldn’t draft a closer in the first 10 rounds unless they have 80+ K potential and almost no threat of being dethroned.  I would draft closers in volume in the latter half of the draft to stockpile saves and minimize risk (since they are more likely to lose their closer role).

The net result should be a team that’s stronger on pitching and OF with a likely need to dig for free agents at one or more of the 1B/2B/SS/3B positions.  With the available depth and shrewd managing, you should be able to put together a good offense and be in better position to snag breakout players vs. your competitors (who’ll be focused on SP/RP/OF on waivers).

Top 50 Players Based on Point Shares (2011 – Using Yahoo Roster Format)
ESPN Rank Y! Rank Name All Pos Point Shares – ESPN Point Shares – Yahoo $ ($260) – ESPN $ ($260) – Yahoo!
1 1 Matt Kemp OF OF 12.38 13.74 $50 $62
2 2 Justin Verlander SP SP 12.25 12.25 $50 $57
3 3 Jacoby Ellsbury OF OF 10.43 11.41 $44 $54
5 4 Ryan Braun OF OF 9.94 10.84 $43 $52
6 5 Curtis Granderson OF OF 9.50 10.18 $41 $49
4 6 Clayton Kershaw SP SP 10.12 10.12 $43 $49
7 7 Jose Bautista 3B,OF 3B 8.09 7.80 $37 $41
8 8 Cliff Lee SP SP 7.72 7.72 $36 $40
9 9 Roy Halladay SP SP 7.45 7.45 $35 $39
10 10 Jered Weaver SP SP 7.19 7.19 $34 $38
11 11 Miguel Cabrera 1B 1B 6.73 6.28 $33 $35
12 12 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 1B 6.66 6.20 $32 $35
14 13 James Shields SP SP 6.18 6.18 $31 $35
16 14 Ian Kennedy SP SP 5.96 5.96 $30 $34
13 15 Robinson Cano 2B 2B 6.46 5.69 $32 $33
20 16 Justin Upton OF OF 5.45 5.37 $29 $32
15 17 Albert Pujols 1B 1B 5.99 5.33 $30 $32
21 18 Craig Kimbrel RP RP 5.28 5.28 $28 $32
17 19 Prince Fielder 1B 1B 5.93 5.23 $30 $31
23 20 Cole Hamels SP SP 5.15 5.15 $28 $31
19 21 Dustin Pedroia 2B 2B 5.88 5.06 $30 $31
18 22 Ian Kinsler 2B 2B 5.90 4.99 $30 $31
24 23 Dan Haren SP SP 4.76 4.76 $26 $30
22 24 Joey Votto 1B 1B 5.19 4.41 $28 $28
25 25 Troy Tulowitzki SS SS 4.67 4.35 $26 $28
27 26 Carlos Gonzalez OF OF 4.28 4.01 $25 $27
28 27 Alex Gordon OF OF 4.26 3.98 $25 $27
30 28 Melky Cabrera OF OF 4.06 3.75 $24 $26
31 29 CC Sabathia SP SP 3.66 3.66 $23 $26
41 30 Mike Napoli C,1B C 3.27 3.61 $22 $26
34 31 Drew Storen RP RP 3.46 3.46 $22 $25
26 32 Adrian Beltre 3B 3B 4.39 3.38 $25 $25
36 33 Josh Beckett SP SP 3.35 3.35 $22 $25
45 34 Victor Martinez C C 2.96 3.29 $21 $24
29 35 Michael Young 3B 3B 4.21 3.28 $25 $24
35 36 Jose Reyes SS SS 3.41 3.06 $22 $24
43 37 C.J. Wilson SP SP 3.03 3.03 $21 $23
33 38 Lance Berkman 1B,OF OF 3.49 3.00 $23 $23
44 39 John Axford RP RP 2.98 2.98 $21 $23
46 40 J.J. Putz RP RP 2.86 2.86 $21 $23
37 41 Hunter Pence OF OF 3.32 2.83 $22 $23
40 42 Asdrubal Cabrera SS SS 3.27 2.67 $22 $22
51 43 Ricky Romero SP SP 2.61 2.61 $20 $22
53 44 Mariano Rivera RP RP 2.54 2.54 $20 $22
47 45 Michael Bourn OF OF 2.80 2.40 $20 $21
32 46 Mark Teixeira 1B 1B 3.60 2.37 $23 $21
57 47 Matt Cain SP SP 2.35 2.35 $19 $21
60 48 Tim Lincecum SP SP 2.25 2.25 $19 $21
61 49 Jose Valverde RP RP 2.24 2.24 $19 $21
63 50 Jonathan Papelbon RP RP 2.14 2.14 $18 $20

 

Top 50 Players Based on Point Shares (2011 – Using ESPN Roster Format)
ESPN Rank Y! Rank Name All Pos Point Shares – ESPN Point Shares – Yahoo $ ($260) – ESPN $ ($260) – Yahoo!
1 1 Matt Kemp OF OF 12.38 13.74 $50 $62
2 2 Justin Verlander SP SP 12.25 12.25 $50 $57
3 3 Jacoby Ellsbury OF OF 10.43 11.41 $44 $54
4 6 Clayton Kershaw SP SP 10.12 10.12 $43 $49
5 4 Ryan Braun OF OF 9.94 10.84 $43 $52
6 5 Curtis Granderson OF OF 9.50 10.18 $41 $49
7 7 Jose Bautista 3B,OF 3B 8.09 7.80 $37 $41
8 8 Cliff Lee SP SP 7.72 7.72 $36 $40
9 9 Roy Halladay SP SP 7.45 7.45 $35 $39
10 10 Jered Weaver SP SP 7.19 7.19 $34 $38
11 11 Miguel Cabrera 1B 1B 6.73 6.28 $33 $35
12 12 Adrian Gonzalez 1B 1B 6.66 6.20 $32 $35
13 15 Robinson Cano 2B 2B 6.46 5.69 $32 $33
14 13 James Shields SP SP 6.18 6.18 $31 $35
15 17 Albert Pujols 1B 1B 5.99 5.33 $30 $32
16 14 Ian Kennedy SP SP 5.96 5.96 $30 $34
17 19 Prince Fielder 1B 1B 5.93 5.23 $30 $31
18 22 Ian Kinsler 2B 2B 5.90 4.99 $30 $31
19 21 Dustin Pedroia 2B 2B 5.88 5.06 $30 $31
20 16 Justin Upton OF OF 5.45 5.37 $29 $32
21 18 Craig Kimbrel RP RP 5.28 5.28 $28 $32
22 24 Joey Votto 1B 1B 5.19 4.41 $28 $28
23 20 Cole Hamels SP SP 5.15 5.15 $28 $31
24 23 Dan Haren SP SP 4.76 4.76 $26 $30
25 25 Troy Tulowitzki SS SS 4.67 4.35 $26 $28
26 32 Adrian Beltre 3B 3B 4.39 3.38 $25 $25
27 26 Carlos Gonzalez OF OF 4.28 4.01 $25 $27
28 27 Alex Gordon OF OF 4.26 3.98 $25 $27
29 35 Michael Young 3B 3B 4.21 3.28 $25 $24
30 28 Melky Cabrera OF OF 4.06 3.75 $24 $26
31 29 CC Sabathia SP SP 3.66 3.66 $23 $26
32 46 Mark Teixeira 1B 1B 3.60 2.37 $23 $21
33 38 Lance Berkman 1B,OF OF 3.49 3.00 $23 $23
34 31 Drew Storen RP RP 3.46 3.46 $22 $25
35 36 Jose Reyes SS SS 3.41 3.06 $22 $24
36 33 Josh Beckett SP SP 3.35 3.35 $22 $25
37 41 Hunter Pence OF OF 3.32 2.83 $22 $23
38 53 Ben Zobrist 1B,2B,OF 2B 3.31 1.93 $22 $20
39 52 Aramis Ramirez 3B 3B 3.27 2.05 $22 $20
40 42 Asdrubal Cabrera SS SS 3.27 2.67 $22 $22
41 30 Mike Napoli C,1B C 3.27 3.61 $22 $26
42 60 Brandon Phillips 2B 2B 3.07 1.67 $21 $19
43 37 C.J. Wilson SP SP 3.03 3.03 $21 $23
44 39 John Axford RP RP 2.98 2.98 $21 $23
45 34 Victor Martinez C C 2.96 3.29 $21 $24
46 40 J.J. Putz RP RP 2.86 2.86 $21 $23
47 45 Michael Bourn OF OF 2.80 2.40 $20 $21
48 68 Paul Konerko 1B 1B 2.74 1.42 $20 $18
49 51 Michael Morse OF OF 2.73 2.08 $20 $20
50 71 David Ortiz DH DH 2.64 1.27 $20 $17