How legit is Brian Dozier?

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Sat May 17, 2014 4:45 pm

Take a look at this year’s early most valuable baserunners and, unsurprisingly, Dee Gordon and his eye-popping 24 steals tops the list. The name after that, though, stands out as a little unusual.

Brian Dozier.

When you think of Brian Dozier, you probably don’t think of a burner. You probably think more along the lines of “non-prospect middle infielder with surprising power and mediocre on-base skills.” Now, Dozier did steal 23 bases in his first season-and-a-half in the big leagues and his 12 steals already this year are tied for fourth. However, that’s half as many as Gordon and they have nearly identical baserunning values. That’s only one more steal than Andrus , and Dozier’s baserunning value is nearly double Andrus’. Dozier clearly is doing something besides stealing bases that is making him the most valuable baserunner in the American League.

Using the incredible, amazing Baseball-Reference Play Index, I was able to identify 25 instances this season in which Brian Dozier took an extra base. Some of them were ordinary, but some were not. Let’s take a look at some of the ones that were not:

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OK, this one’s not really out of the ordinary, but that’s why I’m getting it out of the way now. Brian Dozier does this, like, all the time. It’s one thing to go first-to-third on singles to right field. Dozier goes first-to-third on singles to center, regularly. I could have put five or six examples of this exact thing happening, but that would just be silly. Just trust me when I say if someone hits a single to the outfield and it’s not a hard liner to left, Brian Dozier is probably going to just put his head down and go first-to-third.

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Again, it’s one thing to tag and advance when the ball is hit to the opposite side of the field. Far less often do you see a guy tag and advance to the base which is closest to the outfielder that caught it. Now, to be fair, the ball hit to Desmond Jennings was pretty deep in center and Michael Brantley was moving back when he caught his. But it’s more about the fact that Dozier is able to recognize these things and know his speed well enough to take the extra base.

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Here we have a couple of ground ball singles to left field in which Dozier scored from second. These are the type of things that, when they happen in the midst of a game, can easily go unnoticed. But when they happen repeatedly over the course of a season, they really add up. Neither of these are super aggressive displays of baserunning, but they were hit to corner outfielders, who are closer to home plate than the center fielder, and not everyone scores these runs that Brian Dozier scored for the Twins.

Now for the fun stuff:

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Here, Manny Machado almost makes an incredible play at third base to prevent a Brian Dozier infield hit. However, “almost incredible” sometimes become troublesome when you have to stretch the limitations of your physical ability to do so. That was the case for Machado on this play, and the ball skips away from the first basemen, though just barely. I don’t know if Dozier didn’t realize how little the ball actually skipped away, or if he just felt like being aggressive. Either way, it worked out and he turned a slow chopper to third into a double.

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Here, Wade Davis decidedly did not have to stretch the limitations of his physical ability to make this play, yet it still resulted in an error. Again, the ball really didn’t skip that far away. Again, Brian Dozier didn’t care and took the extra base anyway. This one resulted in a run that he scored from second base when the ball barely made it to the pitchers mound.

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So what about the times Dozier has been thrown out? Surely, with a baserunner as aggressive as Dozier, he is bound to misjudge a ball or his own speed every now and then and cost his team an out. Let’s look at all the times Dozier has made an out on the bases this year:

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And that’s it. The first one, Dozier was originally called safe until Don Mattingly successfully overturned the call with a challenge. Either way, it wasn’t the fault of Dozier being overaggressive or really Dozier’s fault at all. Nothing you can really do in that scenario. The second one, Dozier got a little aggressive, but the Twins had just taken a 1-0 lead in the 10th and he was likely running on any ground ball contact. It was a mistake, but it wasn’t an entirely costly mistake given the situation.

So there you have it. That’s how a guy like Brian Dozier can be among the most valuable baserunners in the MLB despite not being a premier base-stealer. There is being aggressive, and there is being smart with your aggression. Dozier has been able to take the extra base as often as any player in baseball and only has one real mistake to show for it. Last season, Dozier impressed with his surprising power. This season, the power has continued, but what he has done on the bases may be even more impressive.


Full Article:
http://www.fangraphs.com/community/all- ... an-dozier/


Strong reason to believe that his high Run totals might continue, and we should ultimately see an increase in his extra base hits......in line with what we saw last year post-May.

I also think this new found aggressiveness is what's fuelled his higher than usual stolen base totals this year.....something else we may see continue as the year progresses.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Mon Jun 09, 2014 4:53 pm

Since May 2013....

Dozier (27)

GP = 190
AB's = 730
Runs = 116
HR = 31
RBI = 98
BB = 85
SB = 26
BA = .245


Cano (31)

GP = 193
AB's = 731
Runs = 92
HR = 22
RBI = 123
BB = 76
SB = 11
BA = .317



Has Dozier possibly surpassed Cano as the 2B you'd most want to own in Dynasty Leagues?

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BlakeStreetBombers
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby BlakeStreetBombers » Tue Jun 10, 2014 1:37 pm

Here is the stats over the past calendar year (I can't get it to format correctly):

Name HR R RBI SB OBP
Matt Carpenter 8 119 80 4 0.383
Robinson Cano 14 78 100 9 0.4
Brian Dozier 28 103 80 21 0.338
Chase Utley 15 83 74 4 0.361
Ben Zobrist 14 69 50 11 0.345
Jason Kipnis 12 76 71 24 0.383
Daniel Murphy 13 95 75 32 0.334
Dustin Pedroia 8 85 70 11 0.343
Ian Kinsler 12 104 80 18 0.327
Jose Altuve 4 72 51 50 0.328
Howie Kendrick 8 62 47 9 0.33
Emilio Bonifacio 2 65 36 34 0.322
Gordon Beckham 9 65 36 4 0.325
Brandon Phillips 13 64 80 5 0.296
Aaron Hill 14 59 63 2 0.327
DJ LeMahieu 4 60 40 17 0.318
Anthony Rendon 16 77 68 4 0.327
Neil Walker 23 73 72 1 0.34

And here it is if you rank each player at 2B:
Name HR R RBI SB OBP avg rank
Brian Dozier 1 3 2 5 8 3.8
Robinson Cano 5 7 1 10 1 4.8
Daniel Murphy 8 4 6 3 9 6
Matt Carpenter 13 1 2 13 2 6.2
Ian Kinsler 10 2 2 6 12 6.4
Chase Utley 4 6 7 13 4 6.8
Jason Kipnis 10 9 9 4 2 6.8
Dustin Pedroia 13 5 10 8 6 8.4
Ben Zobrist 5 12 14 8 5 8.8
Neil Walker 2 10 8 18 7 9
Anthony Rendon 3 8 11 13 12 9.4
Jose Altuve 16 11 13 1 11 10.4
Brandon Phillips 8 15 2 12 18 11
Howie Kendrick 13 16 15 10 10 12.8
Aaron Hill 5 18 12 17 12 12.8
Emilio Bonifacio 18 13 17 2 16 13.2
Gordon Beckham 12 13 17 13 15 14
DJ LeMahieu 16 17 16 7 17 14.6

He ranks in the top 5 in 4 categories, and his OBP won't kill a team (it is more average).

How heavily should I pursue him? I own Pedroia but am not confident in him. Would Pedroia and a closer or Mat Latos be too much?
10 Team 5x5 Dynasty League using OBP and QS instead of Avg and Wins. We keep 23 + 1 minor leaguer.

C- Travis d'Arnaud
1B - Olson (K)
2B - Javier Baez (K)
3B - Nolan Arenado (K)
SS - Francisco Lindor (K)
MI - Semien (K)
CI - Santana (K)
OF - Blackmon (K)
OF - Merrifield (K)
OF - Choo (K)
OF - Pham (K)
DH - Nelson Cruz (K)

Bench - Joc Pederson, Mallex Smith (K), K. Davis (K), Grisham, Canha

Minor League - Joey Bart (K)

P - Rich Hill (K)
P - Hendricks (K)
P - Keuchel
P - Strasburg (K)
P - Bauer (K)

Bench -Montas (K), Kluber (K), Marquez (K), Chirinos, Samardzija, Civale, Stroman

RP - Yates (K)
RP - Rogers
RP - Diaz (K)

Bench - Robles

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Tue Jun 10, 2014 4:36 pm

Personally, I think Pedroia + Latos would be too much.......but if you're in an OBP league he's even more valuable than in a straight AVG league, so I'd do Pedroia + Soriano or Pedroia + Soria, for him, for sure.

Saves Ain't Got No Face, and you're stacked in that department anyway...

Edit: actually I may look to cash in on Ian Desmond, as his value is kind of wasted at DH....maybe offer Wright + Desmond to a Donaldson owner? Or Pedroia + Desmond for Dozier ++?


PS - Dozier just hit another 2-run HR in his first at bat today.

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BlakeStreetBombers
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby BlakeStreetBombers » Tue Jun 10, 2014 5:52 pm

The same guy actually owns Dozier and Donaldson and I've been trying to get both since he also owns Alvarez and Murphy at 3B and 2B. He has the worst ERA in the league so I thought pitching would be the way to go. He does need a SS also, but Desmond is a good fit because I'm set at OBP and he fills the other 4 categories nicely. I would trade him for those guys though, especially Donaldson.
10 Team 5x5 Dynasty League using OBP and QS instead of Avg and Wins. We keep 23 + 1 minor leaguer.

C- Travis d'Arnaud
1B - Olson (K)
2B - Javier Baez (K)
3B - Nolan Arenado (K)
SS - Francisco Lindor (K)
MI - Semien (K)
CI - Santana (K)
OF - Blackmon (K)
OF - Merrifield (K)
OF - Choo (K)
OF - Pham (K)
DH - Nelson Cruz (K)

Bench - Joc Pederson, Mallex Smith (K), K. Davis (K), Grisham, Canha

Minor League - Joey Bart (K)

P - Rich Hill (K)
P - Hendricks (K)
P - Keuchel
P - Strasburg (K)
P - Bauer (K)

Bench -Montas (K), Kluber (K), Marquez (K), Chirinos, Samardzija, Civale, Stroman

RP - Yates (K)
RP - Rogers
RP - Diaz (K)

Bench - Robles

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Thu Jun 12, 2014 11:29 pm

Brian Dozier – Funny how the people in April who were like, “Dozier is going to go 40/40 this year” have evaporated. Maybe they teleported back to April.

Grey......you still not a believer in the Bull Dozier?

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Grey
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby Grey » Fri Jun 13, 2014 8:59 am

I don't believe he's a 40/40 guy, no.... I'd be surprised by 25/25.... But even 20/20 is terrific for MI
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
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Thanks!

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Sat Jun 14, 2014 11:46 pm

I don't believe he's a 40/40 guy, no....
In fairness....I think that 40/40 comment was a bit of a straw man on your part, said in jest, no?...

I don't think anyone legitimately ever claimed they believed him to be a 40/40 guy.
I'd be surprised by 25/25.... But even 20/20 is terrific for MI

He's currently got 15 HR & 14 SB's in 65 games......to not finish with 25/25 he'd need to have less than 10 HR's and 11 SB's in his remaining 96 games.

For perspective, his 162 GP pace, since last May (193 GP sample size), is 28 HR & 23 SB's......if he manages to play at that same pace over his remaining 96gp.....he'd finish with...

31 HR
27 SB's



I think he's a fairly safe bet, if not a lock, to finish with 25/20....with a decent shot at 30/25. As long as he doesn't get struck down by injuries.


More importantly though, I think his play over the last 193 games, points to a guy who is the odds on favourite to finish as the #1 2B in baseball for 2014.......and yet this deep into the season with a strong sample size backing up his play....he's still having a really tough time garnering the respect of fantasy analysts.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Wed Aug 06, 2014 8:21 pm

From the first post in this thread...my loose 162 game "projection" for Dozier this year only 19 games into the season, (when no one really thought much of him, and that his early season success was only a fluke)....
HR - 23
SB - 19
Runs - 90
RBI's - 72
Walks - 62
K's - 141
109 games into this season, his 162 game pace for this year looks like this....

HR - 28
SB - 27
Runs - 117
RBI's - 73
Walks - 88
K's - 137


Pretty goddamn accurate thus far.....if I do say so myself.

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microwave donut
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby microwave donut » Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:44 pm

Since May 2013....

Dozier (27)

GP = 190
AB's = 730
Runs = 116
HR = 31
RBI = 98
BB = 85
SB = 26
BA = .245


Cano (31)

GP = 193
AB's = 731
Runs = 92
HR = 22
RBI = 123
BB = 76
SB = 11
BA = .317



Has Dozier possibly surpassed Cano as the 2B you'd most want to own in Dynasty Leagues?
No. Not at all.

I know you are the bandleader for the Dozier fan club and he's been quite good, but Cano's floor is so much higher. Like his floor is this season, and he still rates on top of Dozier on the player rater.
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