How legit is Brian Dozier?

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:06 pm

For those keeping score at home.....

Brian Dozier has 23 HR's in his last 128 games.

Robinson Cano has 13 HR's in his last 127 games.

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Grey
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby Grey » Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:55 pm

Ha
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
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If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
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Thanks!

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Sat May 03, 2014 1:01 pm

'Bull' Dozier with his 8th dinger of the year, moving him into a tie with the likes of Mike Stanton, Justin Upton, and Jose Bautista.

Leads Major League Baseball in runs (29), is tied for 6th in SB's with 9, and is 6th in walks (21). Also his batting average, while still low (.247) has continued to rise step for step with his BABIP, which had been unsustainably low.

.365 OBP ensures he'll be staying in that lead-off role as well....which will be gold for his counting stats.

Grouchomarxist
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby Grouchomarxist » Mon May 05, 2014 11:56 am

So what.. a younger Uggla? Yuggla? who will probably disappear for a month somewhere a leave there owners with a black hole at 2b while they wait for the power (or anything) to come back while his avg hovers around .200.

Always chasing that Home Run fairy at middle infield.


Just checking out some stats to back up this opinion, if you are looking for a reason to be wary:

.226 career BA against RHP as a RH
.230 AVG in May (his lowest month, also sees a spike in K% and a drop in BB%)

and looking at the schedule for the month, Home against the Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, Away against the Indians, Tigers, Padres, Giants, Yankees. So decent pitching and some low HR away parks, besides his own home stadium.

I see May having a good potential to be a slow month for Mr. Dozier.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Mon May 05, 2014 3:47 pm

I'm not sure how much stock I put in his historical output in the month of May......when the change in batting stance that gave us the Dozier we've seen in the last 130+ games, occurred at the end of May last year.....and this Dozier has very little in common with the pre-batting stance change Dozier.

It certainly appears he' might be more than us simply "chasing MI HR's"......when over his last 135gp he's had 83 runs, 65 RBI's, 26 HR's, 19 SB's, and 65 walks. With a .253 BA (which is depressed slightly by a low BABIP over that span)

Over a 162 games season that's a pace of 100 runs, 78 RBI, 31 HR, 23 SB's, and 78 BB's........that's elite play at 2B, and a level of production that can only be touched by a handful of guys at 2B (and possibly only Cano)


That said.....135 games isn't enough to make any definitive claims about what he ultimately might be, but I think it's enough to dismiss the idea that he's a fluke simply having a hot start to the year. (His 23:30 BB:K ratio also points to him having made strides in his approach, that people aren't giving him credit for, imo)

His current pace isn't sustainable, obviously.......but I think there's a legit chance he finishes the year as a top 5 player at the position.

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microwave donut
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby microwave donut » Mon May 05, 2014 10:10 pm

16%BB this year from Dozier is the big change. The power is up but it's fueled by a 20% HR/FB which will not last.

There could be a real difference from the stance change but I think he's more likely to keep up the OBP while the power will regress. Changing of the setup is going to help see the ball better more than making a player drive it more. The elevated K rate this year is a little troublesome but not that different than '13. If he can keep getting on base 30 steals is more likely than 30 (or even 20) HR.

I like dude though, a 20/30 middle infielder is damn valuable even if he hits .245.
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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Tue May 06, 2014 5:35 am

.
Last edited by ChipsWinston on Tue May 06, 2014 5:39 am, edited 2 times in total.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Tue May 06, 2014 5:37 am

16%BB this year from Dozier is the big change.
For sure.....that said, he had a 9.4% walk rate post batting stance change last season...
The power is up but it's fueled by a 20% HR/FB which will not last.
His current 43 HR pace is absolutely fueled in part by the 20% HR/FB rate.....but we all know that's not sustainable.

....but with the amount of fly balls he's hitting with his new stance, (~44%) a 10% HR/FB rate would point to a 20-25 HR player, just like what we've seen from Dozier over his last 130 games.

Also his SLG% post May last year, and his SLG% this year, are nearly identical, ~.440
There could be a real difference from the stance change but I think he's more likely to keep up the OBP while the power will regress. Changing of the setup is going to help see the ball better more than making a player drive it more. The elevated K rate this year is a little troublesome but not that different than '13. If he can keep getting on base 30 steals is more likely than 30 (or even 20) HR.
The speed on the base baths is the real thing that jumps out at me as anomalous to previous seasons.....the HR's & BB's obviously can't keep on at their current pace, but signs point to then remaining well above average for the position.....the interesting thing for me is to see how he continues to run.....because as you mentioned, with that juicy .367 OBP and that spot atop the order, the opportunities will certainly be there for him to rack up 25-30 SB's.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Fri May 16, 2014 6:44 pm

Now up to 10 HR's on the season, 30 walks, 12 SB's, and continues to lead the league in runs with 38.........he now has 28 HR's in his last 146 GP, double what Cano has over a similar sample size.


Are people starting to believe in him, as a legit possibility to finish the season as one of the top 2B?

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Fri May 16, 2014 6:51 pm

His batting average has continued to rise pretty steadily with his BABIP as well....now up to .253 on the season (.373 OBP, .468 SLG)


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