How legit is Brian Dozier?

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ChipsWinston
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How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Wed Apr 23, 2014 8:20 am

Im in a 19 team Dynasty Points League where I own DoZier.......last season he was the 11th ranked 2B in total points and 14th in Points per game..

This year he's been #1 in points per game, and total points through 19 games....and while he'll obviously not keep up anything resembling this pace, his 6 HR's, & 5 SB's are a nice early indication that his power/speed combo from last year wasn't a fluke.

His first 19 games have been so good in fact, if he played at just his 2013 pace the remainder of the season, he'd likely finish as a top 5-7ish 2nd bagger.

Over last season and this one, his 162 game average is currently...

HR - 23
SB - 19
Runs - 90
RBI's - 72
Walks - 62
K's - 141

As he's only 26 and hitting his prime is it possible he's actually that good of a player, and those kinds of numbers are possible from year to year going forward? Or should dynasty/keeper leaguers be doing everything they can to cash in now, and sell high while they can?

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Grey
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby Grey » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:28 am

I see you didn't mention what his average was over the last 162 games
Grey Albright
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:41 am

Yeah, my bad there, my league doesn't track batting average....only hits, extra base hits, walks, etc......you're right that it's part of the overall equation tho...


2013 BA (BABIP) .244 (.278)

2014 BA (BABIP) = .221 (.220)




So how legit do we think he is?

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:59 am

His FB% has risen three straight years (37.9%, 41.2%, and in limited AB's this year a massive 51.8% FB rate)......BB rate, ISO, SLG%, and OBP all trending upwards over this three years as well.

Again, not to say his current pace is in any way sustainable (insanely high HR/FB% of 20+ %)......but it is enough to make me wonder if (a) last years numbers were indeed legit and (b) maybe, maybe even just an indication of even better things to come?

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Thu Apr 24, 2014 9:02 am

So, what are your thoughts on Dozier Grey?.....he for real?

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HeadDownGolf
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby HeadDownGolf » Thu Apr 24, 2014 4:02 pm

He was a potential surprise before the season started. All the write-ups out of Minn were how good he looked. During one of my drafts a run on 2B left me with none...so I told them of a secret weapon when I drafted Dozier in the last round. Admittedly I did not expect this! 25th ranked player in Yahoo H2H.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:29 pm

Had three more walks tonight, and now has 17 on the year (good for 6th in the majors).....leads the majors with 22 Runs, and he swiped another bag tonight, making him 6/6 on the season. (Highest total of anyone who hasn't been picked off at least once)

Now that he's in that lead off spot, I'm liking his chances to rack up some impressive counting stats, with those added AB's.....especially if he keeps his BB% up, and his average rises as his BABIP does.

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HeadDownGolf
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby HeadDownGolf » Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:35 pm

I'm admittedly trading for him and paying for it. I had Aaron Hill in a number of leagues and he is now gone, B Miller is gone. I've got a few shares of Dozier and I like it.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:29 pm

Dozier with his 7th dinger on the year tonight.....off Rick Porcello, pulling him into a tie for third in the Majors in HR's.

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ChipsWinston
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Re: How legit is Brian Dozier?

Postby ChipsWinston » Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:57 pm

Dozier purportedly changed his batting stance last May, when hitting coach Tom Brunasky helped Dozier alter his swing to get through the zone faster.....the result?

After only hitting two HR's (and 3 doubles) in his first 41 games last year.....post batting stance adjustment, he went on to hit 16 HR's & 30 doubles in his final 106 games (a 24 HR per 162 game pace)

....and including this year, now has 23 HR's in his last 128 games (a 162 game pace of 29 HR)


Dozier's first two months last year, were so bad I think it ultimately masked just how good a hitter he had become......in Dynasty Leagues in particular, I'd definitely recommend people looking into what they can get him for......


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