Probable 2010 1st round available players list - help please

Who to start, who to bench. Grab that WW guy? Low priced rookie or high priced stud?
Grimlock
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:32 am

Probable 2010 1st round available players list - help please

Postby Grimlock » Sun Jan 10, 2010 5:03 am

Ok, so here's where I stand in my long-term keeper league. After a very successful 2009 championship campaign, I consolidated my gains with a few many-for-one trades (I hit big with youngish talent in 2009 and had no place among my keepers for guys like Morales, J. Johnson, Wainwright, Beckham, Broxton, etc.), and ended up with the following keepers for 2010:

1B - Morneau
2B - Kinsler
SS - Hanley
3B - Zimmerman
CI - AGon
OF - Braun
OF - G. Sizemore

I know this is a good team and am not fishing for compliments, but there is business to attend to. Briefly, the league rules follow: 12 teams, 7 keepers (obvious) with no time limits or penalties, Points league with the following stat values:

Hitting: Total Bases (1.2 points per base) Runs (1.1), RBIs (1.1), Steals (1.1), Walks (1), OFAST (1), DPT (0.7) and Sacrifices (0.5) with Ks (-1) and Caught Stealing (-1)

Pitching: Innings Pitched (2.7 per inning or .9 per out), Ks (1), Wins (10), Saves (5), Holds (2.5) and Losses (-6), Blown Saves (-3), Earned Runs (-2), Hits Allowed (-1), Walks (-1)

The rosters are big, with CI, MI, 5 OF, UTIL, 3 SP, 2 RP and 4 P, plus a bench of 6 and 3 DL slots. There is a weekly 10 start cap, but as it's an ESPN league, you can go over that cap with Sunday starts, meaning that running with 7-8 solid starters is optimal, and a ton of solid relief pitchers for those P slots is also valuable. Although lots of starts is a good thing in this league, bad starts will often yield negative points, so streaming is difficult. We also have a seasonal 100 transactions limit to further discourage streaming. The settings are formulated (after trial and error) so that the best pitchers and hitters are of roughly equal value, with only Pujols being a real points outlier.

I think the league settings are extremely good (and reflect fairly accurately the real value of fantasy entities as actual baseball players - ie. no "Juan Pierre Effect" in this league), but the counting of double plays turned (0.7 points) does create one strange distortion, that being disproportional weight put on having multiple 1st basemen on the roster (for the CI and Util positions) who can soak up essentially free DPT points, which add a solid 20-25% production to the average player. Steals are worth a lot less in this league than in an H-to-H format and strike zone control (K/W) is a crucial skill for a hitter. Anyway, onto the question. As the champ, I pick 12th in the 1st round, and then again on the wheel to begin the 2nd. Keeper lists aren't out yet, but based on how I would pick keepers for the other teams, the following players should be available to start the 1st round of our 2010 draft (in no particular order):

Brian Roberts, Carlos Gonzales, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Heath Bell, Javier Vasquez, Carlos Pena, John Lackey, Francisco Rodriguez, Cliff Lee, Joe Nathan, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, Wandy Rodriguez, Stephen Drew, Mariano Rivera, Brett Anderson, Brandon Webb, Derek Lee, Dan Uggla, Bobby Abreu, Shane Victorino, Manny Ramirez, Jake Peavy, Derek Jeter, Shin-Soo Choo

So the question, Grey, is how would you order this list given league settings and my team needs (obviously pitching)? Please keep in mind that youth doesn't have a ton of value to me because the oldest of my seven keepers is 28 (Morneau), so this is very much a win-now time for my franchise. Thanks in advance.

User avatar
Grey
Posts: 37802
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: Probable 2010 1st round available players list - help please

Postby Grey » Sun Jan 10, 2010 8:55 am

Ok, so here's where I stand in my long-term keeper league. After a very successful 2009 championship campaign, I consolidated my gains with a few many-for-one trades (I hit big with youngish talent in 2009 and had no place among my keepers for guys like Morales, J. Johnson, Wainwright, Beckham, Broxton, etc.), and ended up with the following keepers for 2010:

1B - Morneau
2B - Kinsler
SS - Hanley
3B - Zimmerman
CI - AGon
OF - Braun
OF - G. Sizemore

I know this is a good team and am not fishing for compliments, but there is business to attend to. Briefly, the league rules follow: 12 teams, 7 keepers (obvious) with no time limits or penalties, Points league with the following stat values:

Hitting: Total Bases (1.2 points per base) Runs (1.1), RBIs (1.1), Steals (1.1), Walks (1), OFAST (1), DPT (0.7) and Sacrifices (0.5) with Ks (-1) and Caught Stealing (-1)

Pitching: Innings Pitched (2.7 per inning or .9 per out), Ks (1), Wins (10), Saves (5), Holds (2.5) and Losses (-6), Blown Saves (-3), Earned Runs (-2), Hits Allowed (-1), Walks (-1)

The rosters are big, with CI, MI, 5 OF, UTIL, 3 SP, 2 RP and 4 P, plus a bench of 6 and 3 DL slots. There is a weekly 10 start cap, but as it's an ESPN league, you can go over that cap with Sunday starts, meaning that running with 7-8 solid starters is optimal, and a ton of solid relief pitchers for those P slots is also valuable. Although lots of starts is a good thing in this league, bad starts will often yield negative points, so streaming is difficult. We also have a seasonal 100 transactions limit to further discourage streaming. The settings are formulated (after trial and error) so that the best pitchers and hitters are of roughly equal value, with only Pujols being a real points outlier.

I think the league settings are extremely good (and reflect fairly accurately the real value of fantasy entities as actual baseball players - ie. no "Juan Pierre Effect" in this league), but the counting of double plays turned (0.7 points) does create one strange distortion, that being disproportional weight put on having multiple 1st basemen on the roster (for the CI and Util positions) who can soak up essentially free DPT points, which add a solid 20-25% production to the average player. Steals are worth a lot less in this league than in an H-to-H format and strike zone control (K/W) is a crucial skill for a hitter. Anyway, onto the question. As the champ, I pick 12th in the 1st round, and then again on the wheel to begin the 2nd. Keeper lists aren't out yet, but based on how I would pick keepers for the other teams, the following players should be available to start the 1st round of our 2010 draft (in no particular order):

Brian Roberts, Carlos Gonzales, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Heath Bell, Javier Vasquez, Carlos Pena, John Lackey, Francisco Rodriguez, Cliff Lee, Joe Nathan, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, Clayton Kershaw, Wandy Rodriguez, Stephen Drew, Mariano Rivera, Brett Anderson, Brandon Webb, Derek Lee, Dan Uggla, Bobby Abreu, Shane Victorino, Manny Ramirez, Jake Peavy, Derek Jeter, Shin-Soo Choo

So the question, Grey, is how would you order this list given league settings and my team needs (obviously pitching)? Please keep in mind that youth doesn't have a ton of value to me because the oldest of my seven keepers is 28 (Morneau), so this is very much a win-now time for my franchise. Thanks in advance.
Cliff Lee, Kershaw, Cain, Wandy, Peavy, Javier...
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Grimlock
Posts: 56
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:32 am

Re: Probable 2010 1st round available players list - help please

Postby Grimlock » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:47 pm

Hmmm...yeah, I suppose I could have just waited for your pitching primer. I'm a little surprised to see Kershaw 2nd and Javier 6th on your list, but I guess you have your reasons. Kershaw, if he breaks through, has a great deal of trade value in a keeper league, at any rate, so it's nice to see you so high on him even without the future in mind.

Another question: my team obviously needs pitching (like the first 3-4 picks possibly), but would you really rate the above pitchers over Manny in a vacuum? Not that it's likely Manny would fall to me on the wheel, but I'm curious.

By the way, the list of young players with whom I (non-sexually) "hit it big" is a veritable who's who of Razzball 2009 favorites. I am living proof that good things really do happen to people who read your site. Word to your motha.

User avatar
Grey
Posts: 37802
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: Probable 2010 1st round available players list - help please

Postby Grey » Sun Jan 10, 2010 2:31 pm

Hmmm...yeah, I suppose I could have just waited for your pitching primer. I'm a little surprised to see Kershaw 2nd and Javier 6th on your list, but I guess you have your reasons. Kershaw, if he breaks through, has a great deal of trade value in a keeper league, at any rate, so it's nice to see you so high on him even without the future in mind.

Another question: my team obviously needs pitching (like the first 3-4 picks possibly), but would you really rate the above pitchers over Manny in a vacuum? Not that it's likely Manny would fall to me on the wheel, but I'm curious.

By the way, the list of young players with whom I (non-sexually) "hit it big" is a veritable who's who of Razzball 2009 favorites. I am living proof that good things really do happen to people who read your site. Word to your motha.
Manny would be above Kershaw in that list. Yeah, you did good listening to guys to target. A success story! Insert winking emoticon.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!


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