How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010. She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums). We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA). Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections: 14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.75/1.24/174
22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010. 105 Ks; blech! I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year. He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 15-12/3.49/1.14/105
23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma. He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself. Don’t worry about wins. Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games. Pitfall, Harry! Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections: 11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers: 8-8/2.79/1.23/185
24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets. Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show. Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up. Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections: 18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.13/1.21/146
25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after. February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again. Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections: 11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.62/1.26/161
26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits. On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13. That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively. The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th. By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year. Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers: 13-12/3.73/1.31/204
27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me. Confounded I tell ya! He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was. Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league? That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves. Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-4/2.93/1.23/119
28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half. He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific. Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections: 12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers: 15-9/4.37/1.19/162
29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA). In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06. Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010. Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections: 12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers: 15-13/3.84/1.27/127
30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league. Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate. He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season. For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-4/2.89/1.18/116
31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks. What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up. It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers: 13-11/3.77/1.28/149
32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting. My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year. Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise. Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections: 9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers: 11-9/3.65/1.31/172
33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed. Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there. His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-10/3.05/1.28/104
34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff. In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.” And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE! Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one. Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd. His 2008 looked like an outlier. In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA. What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us. Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections: 12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers: 11-11/4.06/1.23/163
35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman. His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma. Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?” Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.” Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-8/4.08/1.28/113
36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first. So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers: 8-12/3.95/1.26/189
37. Chad Billingsley – Bust! I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk. Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci. I will love Billingsley again next year. Major bounce back coming. Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections: 16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers: 12-11/4.03/1.32/179
38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break). I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-9/4.38/1.38/193
39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92. Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible. Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections: 13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.84/1.25/105
40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career. Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear. Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections: 13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers: 13-9/4.04/1.40/195
