RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Discuss your mock drafts, your real drafts, what's on draft... Anything to do with drafting is found here.
User avatar
Clayton Jones
Posts: 34
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2008 3:47 pm
Location: Philadelphia PA

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Clayton Jones » Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:48 am


C Joe Mauer C-MIN
C Kurt Suzuki C-OAK
1B Miguel Cabrera 1B-DET
2B Placido Polanco 2B-DET
SS Michael Young SS-TEX
3B Edwin Encarnacion 3B-CIN
OF Nick Markakis OF-BAL
OF Raul Ibanez OF-PHI
OF Pat Burrell OF-PHI
OF Denard Span OF-MIN
OF Coco Crisp OF-KC
CI Melvin Mora 3B-BAL
MI Freddy Sanchez 2B-PIT
SP Cole Hamels SP-PHI
SP Rich Harden SP-CHC
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka SP-BOS
SP Erik Bedard SP-SEA
SP Jeremy Guthrie SP-BAL
SP / RP Jamie Moyer SP-PHI
RP B.J. Ryan RP-TOR
RP Kevin Gregg RP-CHC
DH/Util Jim Thome DH-CHW
I'd be worried if I were you with this team. Your offense is pretty weak, even for a 14 team league. You have about 7 players that are negatives:

OF Pat Burrell OF-PHI
OF Denard Span OF-MIN
OF Coco Crisp OF-KC
CI Melvin Mora 3B-BAL
MI Freddy Sanchez 2B-PIT
C Kurt Suzuki C-OAK
2B Placido Polanco 2B-DET

And Young, Encarnacion and Ibanez aren't really guys you want to build around.

Luckily, your pitching is strong enough that you'd be able to move some guys to shore up your offense.
Gotta disagree with you here Grey. Burrell, Crisp, and Polanco are what they are: power, speed and average. By themselves they might be negatives, but on a well balanced team they're positives. I'd be more than happy with Mora, Sanchez and Suzuki for CI, MI, and backup C. I think they compare very well to the other teams at those positions. And I'm particularly curious why you'd call Span a negative? I think he's a late round steal in the outfield.

User avatar
Grey
Posts: 37802
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Grey » Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:31 am


C Joe Mauer C-MIN
C Kurt Suzuki C-OAK
1B Miguel Cabrera 1B-DET
2B Placido Polanco 2B-DET
SS Michael Young SS-TEX
3B Edwin Encarnacion 3B-CIN
OF Nick Markakis OF-BAL
OF Raul Ibanez OF-PHI
OF Pat Burrell OF-PHI
OF Denard Span OF-MIN
OF Coco Crisp OF-KC
CI Melvin Mora 3B-BAL
MI Freddy Sanchez 2B-PIT
SP Cole Hamels SP-PHI
SP Rich Harden SP-CHC
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka SP-BOS
SP Erik Bedard SP-SEA
SP Jeremy Guthrie SP-BAL
SP / RP Jamie Moyer SP-PHI
RP B.J. Ryan RP-TOR
RP Kevin Gregg RP-CHC
DH/Util Jim Thome DH-CHW
I'd be worried if I were you with this team. Your offense is pretty weak, even for a 14 team league. You have about 7 players that are negatives:

OF Pat Burrell OF-PHI
OF Denard Span OF-MIN
OF Coco Crisp OF-KC
CI Melvin Mora 3B-BAL
MI Freddy Sanchez 2B-PIT
C Kurt Suzuki C-OAK
2B Placido Polanco 2B-DET

And Young, Encarnacion and Ibanez aren't really guys you want to build around.

Luckily, your pitching is strong enough that you'd be able to move some guys to shore up your offense.
Gotta disagree with you here Grey. Burrell, Crisp, and Polanco are what they are: power, speed and average. By themselves they might be negatives, but on a well balanced team they're positives. I'd be more than happy with Mora, Sanchez and Suzuki for CI, MI, and backup C. I think they compare very well to the other teams at those positions. And I'm particularly curious why you'd call Span a negative? I think he's a late round steal in the outfield.
I looked through your team using our 12 team point shares and it comes out to about 0. That means your team is slightly above average. Your strength is your pitching, by a lot. Especially if Harden stays healthy.

Span's a decent flier to take, but right now he's a negative. He definitely can be a positive, but it's too early to say he's a positive right now. I will say he's a better negative than Burrell or Polanco.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

User avatar
Hank
Razzball Sponsor
Razzball Sponsor
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:04 am
Location: Idaho
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Hank » Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:44 am

I looked through your team using our 12 team point shares and it comes out to about 0. That means your team is slightly above average. Your strength is your pitching, by a lot. Especially if Harden stays healthy.

Span's a decent flier to take, but right now he's a negative. He definitely can be a positive, but it's too early to say he's a positive right now. I will say he's a better negative than Burrell or Polanco.
Do you guys have a 14 team point shares? This mock had 14 managers, I think those 2 extra teams would make a significant difference.

User avatar
Rudy Gamble
Posts: 265
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Rudy Gamble » Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:09 pm

Downpat -
The 12-team Point Shares should be a good judge of team strength. Where a suml of 0 Point Shares in a category would mean an average team in a 12-team league (6.5 points/category). For a 14-team, this would mean slightly above average.

I'd focus on the totals per category first to identify your team strengths vs. weaknesses.

I just looked at your team and you have clear strengths in AVG (2.3), ERA (2.4), WHIP (1.7), and K (1.6). The pitching was factoring out Jamie Moyer who is a huge negative in ERA/WHIP and probably would be best replaced with a strong 7th or 8th inning reliever.

With those Point Share totals, I'd project you to be somewhere b/w 2nd and 5th in those categories in a 14 team league.

On Runs (0.4), RBI (0.3), and Wins (0.8), your team is looking above average. Probably somewhere between 4th and 6th.

Saves aren't bad (-0.2) assuming BJ and Gregg close.

But there are two big deficiencies on this team - HR and SB. The Point Shares come in at -3.8 and -4.7 respectively. I'd estimate that to finish anywhere from 9th to 12th.

Not sure where that would totally net out but it's probably around 5th place.

If you give me the draft results, I can reference in the Marcel projections and produce projected standings from that...

Rudy

big o
Razzball Sponsor
Razzball Sponsor
Posts: 112
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:13 pm

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby big o » Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:55 pm

this is a fantastic offer .

hopefully someone with the technical knowledge will provide you with the information that you need .

i'm hoping that your analysis will infuse (in me) a better understanding of all the hard work that you have done in your player projections and rankings , and provide me with at least a starting off point for it's practical application to my "situation" .

i will try not to flood you with a bunch of stupid follow-up questions .

thanking you , in advance .

User avatar
Hank
Razzball Sponsor
Razzball Sponsor
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:04 am
Location: Idaho
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Hank » Tue Dec 30, 2008 1:58 pm

I sent him the results in a handy (hopefully) excel format. If anyone else would like them for your own analysis, let me know.

User avatar
Rudy Gamble
Posts: 265
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:33 am
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Rudy Gamble » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:27 pm

Ok all, here's the projected standings using Marcel projections - http://razzball.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... c20081.xls

I did the standings 2 ways:
1) Standings - Marcel Proj AB tab - Based solely on Marcel data (plus the addition of a CHONE projection for Matt Wieters who isn't in Marcel)
2) Standings - Fixed AB tab - Fixed team ABs at 6500 and then adjusted R/HR/RBI/SB accordingly

The reason I did the 2nd standings was that the team totals were very close on offense (partially due to Marcel's conservative projections) and team ABs was a huge variable - e.g., the top team had 6,872 AB, the bottom had 5,579. Marcel isn't a very good predictor of ABs. It's good at figuring out HR per AB, R per AB, etc. So I thought another way to compare the teams was to fix the ABs at 6,500 and then adjust up/down the other totals for offense.

As you'll see, this has a huge difference in the standings. For instance, the 'ClaytonJones' team has 9 pts in HRs based solely on Marcel projections but that's driven by the fact that it has more veterans (so higher projected ABs). If you take out the AB advantage, it gets 2 pts. Perhaps the truth is in the middle but tough to say.

This confirms a decision Grey and I made for the official Point Shares in that we won't use raw stats from Marcel, CHONE, etc. We're going to adjust it based on projected ABs from a source that takes expected playing time into account (likely Baseball Prospectus).

Enjoy...
Rudy

User avatar
Steve
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 1276
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 2:21 am
Location: Auckland, New Zealand
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Steve » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:03 pm

Thanks Rudy. Great stuff.
I guess I can say I achieved absolute consistency with my team.
It was depressingly mediocre across both formats.
This IS my f**king outlet!

BigFatHippo
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 386
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:06 am

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby BigFatHippo » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:44 pm

And the winner is......IowaCubs.

Thanks Rudy, but you forgot one important factor. The Cubbie factor. Iowa's whole team will prolly be involved in the WBC and die in a fiery bus accident in a third world country.

That or a black goat will cross their path, they'll walk underneath Bartman's ladder whereupon Mrs. O'Leary's cow will kick over a bucket, thus ending all hope of an IowaCubs couchmangers mock draft winning team. (<----------- That's logic people)

And somewhere a butterfly will flap it's wings............................

Seriously I told Iowa I thought he had the best draft and this proves it. Great job and thanks for the help Rudy, we'll likely do another before season starts.

Set it up big o and count me in.
Yadier Fielder Utley Reyes Beltre Pena Felipe Sizemore Cruz Ludwick AdamJones
Hamels Bills Shields Wandy Weaver K-Rod Franklin Aardsma Izzy
DL-Webb

10 team Roto

User avatar
Hank
Razzball Sponsor
Razzball Sponsor
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jun 11, 2008 11:04 am
Location: Idaho
Contact:

Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Hank » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:48 pm

Thanks, Rudy! It confirmed my suspicion that my staff sucks balls.


Return to “Fantasy Baseball Drafts Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests