Mock draft part two(ppr)

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David_KOA
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Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 7:05 pm

Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby David_KOA » Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:47 pm

Hey Razzball community(football)! Hope everybody is having a great summer so far. I am back with my second mock draft results. It is almost completed just one round left of kickers and defense(who cares).

Here are the outlines for the mock draft.
It was a 12 team, slow mock draft, that started on July 22nd and each owner had 12 hours per pick. It was a standard scoring with ppr(1).
Our roster consisted of:
QB-2RB-2WR-FLX(RB-WR-TE)-TE-K-DEF & 7 bench slots
I was slotted in the the 7th spot out of 12 teams.

Round 1.) Matt Forte, RB, Bears- Not expecting to see the likes of Foster, Rice, McCoy or Mathews this late in the first. I had a choice between going with Rob Gronkowski(again) or Matt Forte. I was really tempted to go Gronkowski, seeing how well that first team turned out. I wanted to switch it up this time and I really like me some Matt Forte at this point in the first round of a ppr draft.

Round 2.) Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders- After drafting Forte, I was hoping one of the two big TE's would be awaiting me. Both went off the board by the 15th pick:( So I turned my attention to Darren Sproles and his PPR surpremacy. Instead I was given a very early Christmas gift via my que box. If I was willing to pull the trigger in round one, I could not say no to Run DMC in the second. Plus the Raiders have come out and said they will not be looking to sign Cedric Benson. Which means goal-line touches! He is 6 of 7 when trying to convert, one of those carries into a TD.

Round 3.) Cam Newton, QB, Panthers- Heading into this round, I had thoughts about Steven Jackson, Victor Cruz(I like salsa) or another WR. Then when it came to my pick, I see that Cam Newton is an option. I have told myself, wife and 20 month old son that I will not take Brees, Newton or Stafford in the first two rounds. I already had two RB's and I knew that a WR1 would be an option in the 4th round. Interesting stat on the Panthers passing game from last year.
Weeks 1-8; 35.9 pass attemps
Weeks 10-17; 28.8 pass attemps

Round 4.) Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers- Just like I had assumed(not always a good thing) would be the case. I was able to get a WR1(fantasy).
It's intresting looking at weeks 9-14 for the Packers top two WR's. Greg Jennings missed the final three games.
Greg Jennings; 4.1 catches, 45.3 yards & .67 TD's on 7.1 targets
Jordy Nelson; 4.5 cathces, 82 yards & 1 TD's on 5.8 targets
We also can not forget that Greg Jennings had a 14 target game(week 13). Greg Jennings lost more then a full target per game(weeks 1-8). While Jordy Nelson almost gained a full target(weeks 1-8). Jordy Nelson is not just a one hit wonder and looking at these numbers backs that up.

Round 5.) Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers- Unlike my first draft, I was able to obtain the services of Mr. Brown. Last year he gave us a stat line of 69-1108-2-124. It's hard to imagine that we will see another season of just two TD's. I was able to draft him as a low-end WR2 but he brings the ability to return a high-end WR2 type season.

Round 6.) Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts. Nothing flashy about this pick and to be honest I would expect it to be called a bad pick. We have to look at the numbers and see that with the backup J.V. middle school QB's throwing him the football last year. He was still able to produce WR24 numbers in ppr format. Now he gets his passes thrown to him by Andrew Luck(upgrade), He is still the clear cut WR1 option and the colts should be throwing the football a lot this year. He is an excellent WR3/flex option in this format.

Round 7.) Michael Bush, RB, Bears- I got greedy and it paid off in my last draft. I waited till about his current ADP to select him as Matt Forte's handcuff. I know that, I can not gamble like that and even if it means selecting a full round before his ADP. It's weird that, I am drafting Michael Bush not for Run DMC. LOL

Round 8.) Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders- Over his final five games, DHB gave us a stat line of 29 catches for 455 yards and 3 TDs.
Lets take a look at when Palmer, DHB & Moore on the field at same time from week 9-17(6games)
DHB: 4.1 catches, 66.3 yards & .3 TDs
Moore: 3.1 catches, 67.6 yards & .5 TD's
He gets a full offseason with Carson Palmer and Denarius Moore is always in the trainers room. Even with a healthy Moore on the field, DHB holds WR3 value. If/when Moore gets hurt, we then have a WR that gives us WR2(fantasy) production.

Round 9.) Kevin Smith, RB, Lions- In my first mock draft, I was able to wait till the 13th round to snag this guy. Now with all the news coming out about Jahvid Best. That will not be an option from this point till the end of the summer. He has trimmed some weight off and feels the best he has since coming into the NFL. We all saw how productive a healthy Kevin Smith can be in this offense. As of right now, I would consider him a solid RB3(ppr) option.

Round 10.) Brent Celek, TE, Eagles- I am all for looking at Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham in the first or second round. If, I do not obtain the services of those two, I will direct my attention to Jason Witten in the 7th or Fred Davis in the 8th round. None of those work out then, I will be selecting Brent Celek in the 10th round all day. He gave us TE3 production from weeks 6-17 while also seeing 22% of the Eagles passing targets.

Round 11.) Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints- I know that in my first summary, I stated THIS PICK SCREAMS VALUE!!! Well that was in the 10th round of that draft.

Round 12.) Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys- In the final five games of last year we saw a stat line of 82.4 total yards & 3.4 catches. Now Demarco Murray missed three games last year and was not always healthy at OU. I was surprised that the owner of Murray did not want to handcuff him with Felix Jones. Now if Murray does get hurt, Felix Jones will not give you the RB1 numbers but he can get you RB2 value. I will take that type of low risk/high reward in the 12th round!

Round 13.) Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers- He has been working as the Panthers WR2 so far in camp. When looking at his splits from last year:
Weeks 1-8; 2.1 catches, 35 yards & .25 TD's on 3 targets
Weeks 10-17; 2.4 catches, 42 yards & .13 TD's on 4 targets
Not a huge difference but we do see a bump up in production with the extra target per game. He has been running with the first team so far in camp and really looks to have no competition at the moment. With the attention that Steve Smith will command and looking at WR2 targets this year. He is a player that should be targeted by all fantasy owners come late August and early september.

Round 14.) Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals- It looks like the Bengals are finally going to give Scott a shot in a RBBC. From 2009-10 he gave us a stat line of 135 carries, 620 rushing yards on 4.6 YPC. Benard Scott is the more talented of the two backs and should hold more fantasy points at the end of 2012.

My roster at the end of the draft
QB- Cam Newton
RB- Matt Forte, Darren McFadden, Michael Bush, Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, Felix Jones and Benard Scott
WR- Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Reggie Wayne, DHB & Brandon LaFell
TE- Brent Celek

What did I take from this draft?
I will not be going into any of my drafts looking to select one of the big five QB's. That being said, I will also draft them if the price is right. Cam Newton was the last of the select five and brings the skill set to return 1st round value. I know QB is really deep and people want to wait as long as they can. That is all good and most times the correct way to play it. Just don't be so set in that mindset that it cost you a player like Cam Newton and he slips to another owner.

Make sure you lock up your handcuffs! I was able to do so in both of my drafts. Not every RB has or deserves a handcuff come draft day. That being said players like Foster, Forte, MJD, Bradshaw and AP all should be handcuff if you draft one of them. I know it may seem like a waste of a 7th or 8th round pick on a handcuff. Think of it like this, say you have James Starks and Ben Tate on the board. The most James Starks is going to return you if Foster was to get hurt is low-end RB2 value. If You have Ben Tate he steps right in and continues to give you RB1 production.

Now, I bet you are thinking, I did not lock up a handcuff for Run DMC. My question to you would be, who is the handcuff for Darren McFadden? Is it Taiwan Jones, Mike Goodson or Marcel Reece? He falls into the pool of no clear handcuff at the moment. Maybe as the summer progress, a handcuff will emerge but at the moment it would just be a wasted pick.

One last note and that would be take players with oppurtunity late in drafts. This is not so easy when you are in the 13th or later but believe me, more times then not fantasy owners are just drafting based on name on back of the jersey. Don't be that guy and feel good about calling out Brandon LaFell or Bernard Scott. They are not house hold names but they both have talent and oppurtuinty. They are low risk plays but if they hit the profit is nice.

I hope this was another enjoyable read and helpful at the same time. Maybe I was able to help bring a new way for you to think about approaching your fantasy draft. I would really like to get some feedback from the Razzball community wether it be writers or readers all is welcomed. If it's positive(great) but even if it's negative let me know. That what these mocks are for to discuss and learn from them.

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jaywrong
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Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby jaywrong » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:41 pm

Great stuff David. I'm getting the fantasy football tingles as training camp will soon turn into pre-season.

I do wonder, from your mock draft, that there perhaps is a large chance that Cam Newton gets overrated and drafted much earlier than where you got him. What are your thoughts on that? From how I read it, you weren't prepared to grab him there, but seemed like low hanging fruit that was too good to pass up.

Also, where did Phillip Rivers fall to?
jaywrong
http://razzball.com/
@jaywrong for all your immediate Twitter fantasy needs.
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David_KOA
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Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby David_KOA » Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:09 pm

Great stuff David. I'm getting the fantasy football tingles as training camp will soon turn into pre-season.

I do wonder, from your mock draft, that there perhaps is a large chance that Cam Newton gets overrated and drafted much earlier than where you got him. What are your thoughts on that? From how I read it, you weren't prepared to grab him there, but seemed like low hanging fruit that was too good to pass up.

Also, where did Phillip Rivers fall to?
In my first mock draft Cam Newton was selected in the first round with the 10th pick. I have caught the mock draft fever and currently involved in four other slow mock drafts. Besides this mock draft, I have not seen Cam Newton make it past round 2.06 In my brief mock draft experience, I would have to say that Cam Newton is being and will be over drafted come late August/early September.

Phillip Rivers was on the board to pick 7.05(12th) QB off the board. I just snagged him In the exact same spot in one of my currently drafting mock draft. I have seen him selected at the end of the fifth round.

Thank you for reading! Any other comments or question please ask away.

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jaywrong
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Joined: Wed Jun 06, 2012 2:10 pm

Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby jaywrong » Sat Aug 04, 2012 6:44 pm

Good stuff.

I'm actually an auction guy, but the mock snake drafts are good indicators on what values are being placed on players.
Great stuff David. I'm getting the fantasy football tingles as training camp will soon turn into pre-season.

I do wonder, from your mock draft, that there perhaps is a large chance that Cam Newton gets overrated and drafted much earlier than where you got him. What are your thoughts on that? From how I read it, you weren't prepared to grab him there, but seemed like low hanging fruit that was too good to pass up.

Also, where did Phillip Rivers fall to?
In my first mock draft Cam Newton was selected in the first round with the 10th pick. I have caught the mock draft fever and currently involved in four other slow mock drafts. Besides this mock draft, I have not seen Cam Newton make it past round 2.06 In my brief mock draft experience, I would have to say that Cam Newton is being and will be over drafted come late August/early September.

Phillip Rivers was on the board to pick 7.05(12th) QB off the board. I just snagged him In the exact same spot in one of my currently drafting mock draft. I have seen him selected at the end of the fifth round.

Thank you for reading! Any other comments or question please ask away.
jaywrong
http://razzball.com/
@jaywrong for all your immediate Twitter fantasy needs.
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BlakeStreetBomber88
Posts: 101
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 4:47 pm

Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby BlakeStreetBomber88 » Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:18 pm

Great stuff. Loved the insight behind each pick. Keep them coming!
10-Team ESPN ROTO
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Miguel Cabrera
2B - Roughned Odor
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Manny Machado
1B/3B - Eduardo Nunez
2B/SS - Jonathan Villar
OF - Mookie Betts, Starling Marte, George Springer, Gregory Polanco, Marcell Ozuna
UT - Justin Upton

SP - Jose Fernandez, Steven Matz, Rich Hill, Drew Pomeranz, Trevor Bauer, Danny Duffy, Matt Shoemaker, Michael Fullmer, Marco Estrada, Tyson Ross(DL)
RP - Jeurys Familia, Roberto Osuna, Jeanmar Gomez

David_KOA
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 7:05 pm

Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby David_KOA » Tue Aug 07, 2012 11:03 am

Great stuff. Loved the insight behind each pick. Keep them coming!
Thank you! I am glad you are enjoying them. I just finished my third mock draft and hoping to post it here rather soon.

SanFran1966
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 8:17 pm

Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby SanFran1966 » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:28 am

I just drafted a team in a 12x H2H PPR format with TDs @ 4 pts passing & 6 pts rushing & receiving. Went with Rice (had #1 pick) & Sproles then took Vick.

What is the consensus on Vick. I have to think he is in the same range as Cam this season, who went around pick #11.

Also grabbed Carson Palmer in the 11th for the injury concern.

David_KOA
Posts: 35
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2012 7:05 pm

Re: Mock draft part two(ppr)

Postby David_KOA » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:53 pm

I just drafted a team in a 12x H2H PPR format with TDs @ 4 pts passing & 6 pts rushing & receiving. Went with Rice (had #1 pick) & Sproles then took Vick.

What is the consensus on Vick. I have to think he is in the same range as Cam this season, who went around pick #11.

Also grabbed Carson Palmer in the 11th for the injury concern.
I think the only real big difference that you are going to find between Newton and Vick is the rushing TD total. I don't see why Cam Newton can not flirt with hitting the double digit mark in 2012. Not the 14 we saw in his rookie year but around 10. I think Michael Vick will see a boost in rushing TD total with a expected decrease in the same department of LeSean McCoy. I would say he could park in the neighborhood of 5 rushing TD's.

I like the selection of Carson Palmer to pair with Michael Vick. Especially in the 11th round! Excellent grab and don't be surprised if you get a top 12 QB in return.


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