The Syndicate

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OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

The Syndicate

Postby OaktownSteve » Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:21 pm

The Syndicate

This is a theoretical proposal for competing in the NFBC. This year a partnership of two guys won the $125k main event prize. I've seen a lot of partnerships be successful in that format and I got to wondering if you could expand that concept from a partnership to a larger enterprise.

For background, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is often referred to as "high stakes" fantasy baseball and is somewhat analogous to the World Series of poker. The signature NFBC contest is called The Main Event. It's a 15 team 5x5 roto format with 23 starters (2 catcher league), 7 reserves, FAAB free agent model, and no trades.

Buy-in is $1,600. League payout is $6,500 for first, $3,200 for second and $1,600 for third. Total prize pool $11,300. In addition to league payout there is an overall champion of all the aggregate teams, 435 total across all leagues. The payout for that starts at $125,000 for the overall champ and pays out down to 11th place with a total prize pool of $207,450.

If you just take a straight odds model, you have a 3/15 chance of cashing in your league and an 11/435 chance of cashing in the overall. The Syndicate will run 5 teams per year. Taking odds x total prize pool x 5 gives you an expected payout of $6,150.66 on an $8,000 total buy-in.

The Syndicate will be composed of 8 people across 4 different rolls. For today, I'm going to assume equal share buy-in of $1,000 a piece and equal share of any payout. You could get creative with how you do the financials (e.g. different buy-ins for different payouts, performance bonuses etc) but I'll leave that for you to imagine.

The Team

1 Research: This is your numbers guy. You'll want somebody with advanced SABR skills who can also compile and crunch NFBC league meta-data. Pre-season projections and other research will be made available to all other members of The Syndicate. During the season the research person will also be responsible for tracking stat run rates for the purpose of optimizing the performance of each team. An example of this would be recommending a particular team go heavier or lighter on HRs based on the standings and likely rest-of-season accrual rates. The researcher will also respond to specific data requests from other Syndicate members pre- and post- draft.

5 Portfolio Managers: Each portfolio manager is responsible for 1 team. They have final say in all affairs including draft, lineup and FAAB.

1 General Manager: The general manager is there to consult with each manager. He will be part of the draft but will not have final say in the decisions. The general manager should make sure that all managers are aware of all fantasy related baseball events and the information is shared across all members. The GM should be able to help each portfolio manager have a plan of attack and a strategic frame work for their team.

1 Owner: The owner will be the founding entity, "hiring" the GM and working with the GM to find the other members of The Syndicate. He will not have any say in day-to-day events but will consult with all other members of The Syndicate on all subjects throughout the entire season cycle.

There are some obvious points here of where you're trying to gain an edge so that you can perform better than the odds predict.

-Diversity of player pool in season: Ideally managers will assemble teams that increase the diversity of the player pool

-Division of labor: stats from a stat guy, tactical management from a guy focused on the league, strategic direction from the GM and owner, etc.

-Shared knowledge and best practice: Tactical, strategic and player ideas and information drawn from a pool of 8

What say you? Does this idea seem like it has potential to out compete individual and partner owners?

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Grey
Posts: 37667
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: The Syndicate

Postby Grey » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:32 pm

Maybe I'm following wrong but $6,150.66 for $8,000 doesn't sound terrific... I think you're also assuming five people is better than one... More chefs yadda yadda... If the conceit is they all have analogous fantasy brains, then it could work, but what happens when one jackhole drops a player the Syndicate doesn't agree with? Is there a vote? What happens when the vote turns out to be wrong? Then the one 'jackhole' is right and pissed off he couldn't make a move he wanted to make that proved correct...
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

Re: The Syndicate

Postby OaktownSteve » Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:16 pm

Yeah...76.8 percent payback. You do better with a slot machine. You get better odds in Vegas. So you have to go in believing that this model gives you a chance to beat those odds, which is very possible because unlike Vegas, those odds are not mathematical reliabilities and you can do things to influence the outcome. There is still the NFBC rake to contend with, so again, you don't go into this unless you think you can beat the "expected" payout.

First off, if this was not totally clear, each of the 5 portfolio managers has a team and they make all the final decisions for their team. Each runs independently of the others. The GM provides advice and support but does not directly manage the team. The research guy gives them numbers but doesn't tell them how to use them. So really there's only one chef, but he's got help.

The advantage here is that 5 different managers provide a diversity of style and also of the players they draw from so if a team has a year with a lot of bad luck, perhaps another team within the syndicate has good luck. Diversify the portfolio. You could also do this by just buying 5 teams of your own, but presumably you'd run them mostly the same way even if you consciously try to diversify your player portfolio. What's more, you'd have an $8,000 buy in rather than a grand (though 5x reward potential).

Furthermore, the too many cooks analogy doesn't quite hold because there is a sole person making final decisions. In general, teams perform better on complex tasks than individuals. Diversity of opinion, knowledge, skill set and workload all provide competitive advantages.

As for the jackhole, the owner has both hiring power and firing power. Like in real baseball, the owner would have to decide if a manager who didn't win showed promise and should be given another year or replaced with a new manager the next.

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Grey
Posts: 37667
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: The Syndicate

Postby Grey » Thu Jan 23, 2014 7:34 pm

The too many cooks metaphor doesn't hold at all... I misunderstood, I thought it was five managers for each team; it's not... My bad there...

It's more like five co-workers buying five lottery tickets and agreeing to split the profits since they all have different numbers... Or five stockbrokers working at one company where everyone benefits from information given by head guy, but don't micromanage each other's portfolios...

I like the idea... Finding four others (that you trust) to help diversify your fantasy portfolio is the key...
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

Beardawg
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Sponsor
Posts: 574
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: The Syndicate

Postby Beardawg » Fri Jan 24, 2014 3:37 pm

Steve, do you live in Oakland ? I do, and have always wanted to try NFBC. Oh wait, i dont have an extra grand lying around. maybe $500 at best
10 team, keep 9 at auction $, 6x6 OPS,HLD

C - W. Ramos
1 - M. Cabrera
2 - A. Mondessi
S - T. Story
3 - N. Arenado
CI - L. Voit
MI - M. Machado
O - C. Yelich
O - M. Brantley
O - J. Upton
O - A. Meadows
U - G. Hampson
BN - Franmil Reyes
BN - N. Senzel
BN - J. Bauers

SP - C. Carrasco
SP - M. Mikolas
SP - H. Ryu
SP - S. Matz
SP - M. Harvey
SP - M. Strahm

RP - A. Miller
RP - S. Doolittle
RP - J. Hader
RP - S. Dominguez
RP - R. Presley
RP - C. Devenski
RP - T. Rogers
RP - D. Castillo
RP - D. Betances

OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

Re: The Syndicate

Postby OaktownSteve » Fri Jan 24, 2014 4:50 pm

I live in Oakland in Redwood Heights just off the 13. The NFBC has online contests for as little as $125. Go to their site.


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