SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

News, Injuries, Rosters - All baseball all the time!
Beardawg
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 574
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 6:50 pm

SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Beardawg » Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:41 pm

12 team holds league that undervalues RPs, so I can max my roster value by aiming for 11s and 12s in saves and holds with 8 or 9 RPs rostered, Questions:

1, how many solid SPs do I need to roster compared to slots open to stream? 3 SPs and 2 streamers? 4 and 1?

2. how sub-elite can my rostered SPs be? Would Latos, Bailey, Grey do it? Aim higher? Lower? Should I just auction 5 upside plays (say, Grey, Ubaldo, Miguel Alfredo, T. Walker, Kazmir) see which 3 stick and drop/stream the other 2?

Thanks for any and all approaches

bd
10 team, keep 9 at auction $, 6x6 OPS,HLD

C - W. Ramos
1 - M. Cabrera
2 - A. Mondessi
S - T. Story
3 - N. Arenado
CI - L. Voit
MI - M. Machado
O - C. Yelich
O - M. Brantley
O - J. Upton
O - A. Meadows
U - G. Hampson
BN - Franmil Reyes
BN - N. Senzel
BN - J. Bauers

SP - C. Carrasco
SP - M. Mikolas
SP - H. Ryu
SP - S. Matz
SP - M. Harvey
SP - M. Strahm

RP - A. Miller
RP - S. Doolittle
RP - J. Hader
RP - S. Dominguez
RP - R. Presley
RP - C. Devenski
RP - T. Rogers
RP - D. Castillo
RP - D. Betances

User avatar
Grey
Posts: 37670
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Grey » Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:40 pm

12 team holds league that undervalues RPs, so I can max my roster value by aiming for 11s and 12s in saves and holds with 8 or 9 RPs rostered, Questions:

1, how many solid SPs do I need to roster compared to slots open to stream? 3 SPs and 2 streamers? 4 and 1?

2. how sub-elite can my rostered SPs be? Would Latos, Bailey, Grey do it? Aim higher? Lower? Should I just auction 5 upside plays (say, Grey, Ubaldo, Miguel Alfredo, T. Walker, Kazmir) see which 3 stick and drop/stream the other 2?

Thanks for any and all approaches

bd
1. 3 SPs 2. You don't need an ace.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

User avatar
Simply Fred
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:15 am

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Simply Fred » Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:01 pm

Hey, thanks for the shoutout. Glad to see Grey responded. Rudy/Grey first and foremost all pitching questions. My experience limited to RCL so I am happy to weigh in on streaming issues there.

(btw: Evil Evies finished #2 our league and #20 overall RCL (640 teams). He drafted 1 SP in first 22 rounds, Darvish RD4. Also nabbed Anibal Sanchez as second SP R23.)

OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby OaktownSteve » Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:53 pm

How many reserve slots? Any innings or GS started limits?

Beardawg
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 574
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Beardawg » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:12 pm

Hey thanks for answering the call Fred. I'm liking the strategy more and more of just taking 5 cheap upside pick, then dropping the 2 that perform worst for my streaming spots. Just noticed your post in the other thread too: why have any full time starters? Has anybody tried that? That's balsy as hell! I guess the catch is you'd have to cash in on all of the hitters you're spending your extra auction $ on......and really, there's no sense in turning down a good SP if he comes up at the right price in the auction or as a keeper, right? Like, no sense in throwing back a $3 Homer Bailey (yeah my keepers suck).

OTSteve, I've got 8 BN spots, and probably want at least 3 on offense. I'm thinking I'll roster 9 RPs to be sure to nuke Hlds and Svs, leaving 3 SPs full time, and 2 streaming slots.

Go GP limit, but I do have a 1700 IP cap.
10 team, keep 9 at auction $, 6x6 OPS,HLD

C - W. Ramos
1 - M. Cabrera
2 - A. Mondessi
S - T. Story
3 - N. Arenado
CI - L. Voit
MI - M. Machado
O - C. Yelich
O - M. Brantley
O - J. Upton
O - A. Meadows
U - G. Hampson
BN - Franmil Reyes
BN - N. Senzel
BN - J. Bauers

SP - C. Carrasco
SP - M. Mikolas
SP - H. Ryu
SP - S. Matz
SP - M. Harvey
SP - M. Strahm

RP - A. Miller
RP - S. Doolittle
RP - J. Hader
RP - S. Dominguez
RP - R. Presley
RP - C. Devenski
RP - T. Rogers
RP - D. Castillo
RP - D. Betances

OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby OaktownSteve » Fri Jan 24, 2014 7:58 am

I'm assuming you can start 9 pitchers and it's a daily league.

If you run an average of 8 relievers over the course of the year we'll ball park that at 500 innings, meaning you'll need another 1200 innings. 7 rostered starters who give you 170 innings each gets you right there.

Now let's look at the stream scenario. Let's say that your 3 rostered starters give you 600 innings and you get 500 from your relievers. You'll need another 600 innings from streamers. My experience streaming has been you estimate 5.666 innings per stream start meaning you'll want 105 starts from your stream slot. There are roughly 180 game days in a season, so if you're active you could get all those innings from 1 stream slot. Even if your rostered starters give you fewer than 600 innings, 1 stream should still suffice.

Let's look at your competitive advantages here. If you draft well and manage well you should hit your save/holds targets. Say that your relievers give you 8.5 k/9. You're looking at 470 ks from the relief slot. We'll give you some decent but not ace level starters rostered that give you 180 ks each. so that's 540 more. So far 1010. Not sure what your K targets are but I'm going to guess 1400 makes you competitive. So you need 400 Ks in 600 stream innings. That's a 6 k/9 rate which might be manageable.

So no we get to the risk. Yours is a pretty deep league. The quality of streamers is not going to be really good and you'll be taking more than a third of your innings from that slot. The extra relievers should help mitigate that. Here's my back of the envelope. If you get a 3 era from your relievers, a 3.25 from your starters and a 4.5 from your streamers, you're looking at a 3.63 ERA. Is that good enough? The Whip numbers will be relatively on par with the ERA.

Another thing to consider is that getting all those innings from relievers is going to lower your win total. And with a third coming form your streamers, they are going to win at a lower rate than higher tier pitchers.

So you gain a lot in saves and holds and maybe just a little in ks, but likely lose ground in W/ERA/Whip. One advantage you may have is the option to go for more offense in the draft because you aren't drafting top tier starters, but I'm not sure that's enough compensation.

If it were me, I would go with a modified stream. I'd carry 5 rostered starters and 1 stream spot. And I would try to have a true SP1 and SP2 in there whether it's by spending the pick on the top guys or gambling that you can identify lower tier guys who will pitch like aces this year.

Beardawg
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 574
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Beardawg » Fri Jan 24, 2014 3:08 pm

OakTownSteve is just en fuego! Somebody get this man on the front page!

Hey thanks for crunching the #s, and I have to say my projections aren't too dissimilar. One issue I might take is that your streaming SPs will give you Ws at a lower rate than your ordinary SP1-SP4. With your rostered guys, you're probably just running them out for 90-100% of their starts, and collecting the 12-18 Ws each one gets over the course of a season. But when you're streaming, you can just always pick up starters against the worst teams in the league, arguably increasing your chances at Ws per start.

I also think I'm getting a sub-3.00 ERA from my RPs. 3.30 from my SP1-SP3/4 is probably reasonable. But for my streamers, I gotta do better than 4.5. Again, if I'm just picking on the bottom third teams in the league, and if you look at the total runs for those teams over the course of last season, they're, as a group, averaging 3.5 runs per game. Granted, I'm not getting the best pitchers those teams will face that pull down that average, but I'm not getting the worst either (including all those crappy middle relievers they face). So, I think even being conservative, I can shoot for 3.65 from my streaming slot -- though I know others on that other streaming thread professed to do much better than that last year.

Given all that, I'm also slightly worried that if I don't have 9 RPs, I won't get that little extra edge I need to win the Hlds and Svs cats. On the other hand, I suppose I could always stream an RP in when appropriate/available. One weird dynamic with Hlds leagues is that your great Hlds guys can sometimes get pulled up into a closer role, hurting you in Hlds. Yes, perhaps you can then trade a closer. But I might rather just start out with that 9th RP to cover my bases.
- - -
All that said, the other BIG question I have as to whether all of this is worth it, is, can I capitalize those extra $ on offense? My worry is that the top tier is no longer what it used to be, and that therefore it isn't as easy to be sure you can invest those extra $ into extra stats. If there's just a big slug of players ranked 25-75 that could are hard to predict because they are so close, what's the strategy for my extra $ on offense? Just landing as many guys say 25-50 as possible? Aiming for as many 1-25 as possible, then looking for upside in 50-150? I know this is abstract, but I think you catch my drift.

Gotta run, hasta luego
10 team, keep 9 at auction $, 6x6 OPS,HLD

C - W. Ramos
1 - M. Cabrera
2 - A. Mondessi
S - T. Story
3 - N. Arenado
CI - L. Voit
MI - M. Machado
O - C. Yelich
O - M. Brantley
O - J. Upton
O - A. Meadows
U - G. Hampson
BN - Franmil Reyes
BN - N. Senzel
BN - J. Bauers

SP - C. Carrasco
SP - M. Mikolas
SP - H. Ryu
SP - S. Matz
SP - M. Harvey
SP - M. Strahm

RP - A. Miller
RP - S. Doolittle
RP - J. Hader
RP - S. Dominguez
RP - R. Presley
RP - C. Devenski
RP - T. Rogers
RP - D. Castillo
RP - D. Betances

OaktownSteve
Posts: 318
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby OaktownSteve » Fri Jan 24, 2014 4:49 pm

I mostly agree with your analysis of my analysis. The lower win rate for streamers is pretty close. On the one side you can start guys against lower tier teams. On the other hand, they are worse pitchers and they generally do not go as deep in the game. Because of the depth of you league I'm downgrading the streamers a bit below what I've seen in the RCL.

I also agree that you can do better with your reliever rates. I have to warn you though that I've had a couple of season's worth of data where I came in at right around a 4.00 ERA for my streamers. It's going to be tough to do much better in a deeper league and I would guess maybe worse. But you're right, I chose all those numbers somewhat arbitrarily just so we could have a ball park to see if it made sense at all. You'll have to decide if you can beat those number.

I think the answer to your other question is yes, you can capitalize by spending more on offense. I think offense has contracted so the win margins will be thinner. Extra dollars on offense should go further than ever before. I'd use the extra dollars to buy Mike Trout and if I couldn't get him, I'd spread it around the mid-tier and try to get slight upgrades at multiple positions.

User avatar
Simply Fred
Sponsor
Sponsor
Posts: 402
Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:15 am

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

Postby Simply Fred » Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:03 pm

Beardawg: again my experience limited to RCL, still...

don't think you need to worry about Ws whilst streaming. rather than point toward my little team, i reference our league which was VERY active streaming, top to bottom. We led all of RCL leagues with 1145 Ws. Second was Champions with 1074. those closers and middle relievers stack up Ws when those 8-to-9 pitching slots are filled daily.

re quality of streamers: i feared the well drying up when others joined the fray. was pleasantly surprised to find high quality SP available because managers had fewer of them stabled.


Return to “Baseball - General Player Discussion”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests