Axford vs. Hanrahan

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Axford vs. Hanrahan

Postby papasmurf » Sun Feb 24, 2013 2:52 pm

It seems most perts are loving Hanrahan more than Axford this year. (And I give you, Grey, a lot of cred for ranking Axford above Hanrahan)

I see warnings on Axford's control, but no one seems to mention that Hanrahan's walk rate was worse. H walked 5.43/9 IP while Ax walked 5.1/9 IP. Ax's K rate is also superior.

I think Hanrahan is gonna struggle in the AL East pitching at Fenway while I see a solid bounceback year from Axford. A bit of adjustment and Axford could be lights out once again.

I also expect Ax to have more save chances. I see Han topping out in the low 30s (if he doesn't lose his gig) while Axford can challenge 40.

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Re: Axford vs. Hanrahan

Postby Mauddib » Sun Feb 24, 2013 3:10 pm

I see them as both being pretty similar. Good but not great. Of course they are closers so you don't really know how things will pan out. I would never have thought Axford would be a top closer but going into last year he was considered one of the better ones. I would be fine with either as my #2 closer with Axford having a slight edge.

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Re: Axford vs. Hanrahan

Postby rocketman » Mon Feb 25, 2013 10:22 am

Well I am a little biased because I have good luck with Hanrahan for 2 years running now. But I would take him over Axford. For one, Hanrahan did not lose his job for a couple of weeks and completely lose his release (I assume).
And, while I understand your point about the AL East, I don't think it is going to be as beastly as usual this year. The Yankees are looking to be very down and he doesn't have to pitch to the Red Sox who should be better. So you have Toronto and the Rays - one bad one good. Admittedly tougher, but not that much.
Finally what are you basing your predicted save chances on? Seems pretty tough to estimate with an accuracy.

All that said, I see them as pretty much equal and I just prefer Hanrahan due to past good experience - I know, I know rock solid analysis.

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Re: Axford vs. Hanrahan

Postby papasmurf » Mon Feb 25, 2013 5:58 pm

I have no advanced statistical analysis or anything to back up what I am saying other than gut.

The last couple of yrs BOS has been near the bottom of the league in saves. Now I realize a big part of that is the BOS bullpen's been ugly, but part of that has also been them losing. All I know is that if I have to put money on which team is end up with more saves this year, my money is on MIL.

I don't care much about blown saves. Besides the stats I cited above, Axford's FIP last yr was 4.06 and xFIP 3.29. Hanrahan's were 4.45 and 4.28 respectively. Hanrahan's ERA and saves masked just how shaky he was last year. I think he's gonna have a rough go of it this year.

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Re: Axford vs. Hanrahan

Postby AdmiralTrey » Tue Feb 26, 2013 8:52 am

Moving from the NL Central (Astros, LOL) to the AL East is probably going to be rough on Hanrahan... Axford had two straight seasons with an ERA under 2.50 before getting lit up last year and despite losing his job temporarily, giving up lots of runs, etc. he still had a 12.1 K/9 ratio.
I definitely think he's in a better position than Hanrahan is in.

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