Teams that will play above expectations this year:

[JoeC]

Agree with others in here that the Giants are the favorite in the West. Panda and Posey for full seasons will solve a lot of their offensive woes.

All that said, they're not without their flaws. Their top 3 pitchers are easily the best in the division (and probably second, to the Phillies, in baseball), but their #4 and #5 spots have some big question marks. No way does Vogelsong do anything like he did last year (and he's already hurt). Zito is the biggest waste of money in the history of sports. At closer, no one is gonna fear Brian Wilson's beard if he's constantly grooming it in the trainer's room (of course, closer is the easiest pitching position to replace).

It should be a nice, tight race, but I don't see Colorado having the pitching to keep up. I do like Nicasio as a sleeper SP, but he is coming off a broken NECK, so YMMV.

As for breakout teams elsewhere in baseball, I'm big on the Royals this year. I don't think they'll win the Central or anything, but with a breakout by Hochevar (finally), I think 2nd place is doable. I have no faith in the White Sox to do anything of note, new manager or not.

[JoeC]

I think the Mariners are team to keep an eye on offensively. That is not to say we're going to see breakout superstars coming out of Seattle given the talent and the park, but I like the fact that they have eliminated a lot of the black holes out of their line up. They had so many automatic outs the last couple of years. They have a relatively solid player or prospect pretty much everywhere now and I think they may be able to make few more trips through the lineup this year and score a few more runs have more guys hitting with runners on base. I think that'll give all their guys a little bump above where their being projected which might create some opportunities, especially in AL only.

I fully agree with this. Mariners offense will be much improved over the last few years (of course, since they were annually one of the worst offenses in baseball, there was nowhere to go but up!). I'll be curious to see if they stick to their guns and actually move Ichiro to 3rd in the batting order. That would completely change what type of player he is and possibly increase his draft rank in my eyes. They always talk about his massive home runs in batting practice. If he was batting third, perhaps it would lead him to take that type of swing during gametime instead of his sticking with his slappy-dappy ways.

Curiously, while the M's certainly helped their offense out with the trade for Montero, they kind of paid Peter to rob Paul. I would actually say that their starting pitching is a weakness now. FHer is awesome, naturally, but who do they have behind that? Jason Vargas? Blech!

So while they will definitely score more runs, they'll probably also give up more runs, making their total wins gained close to neutral. They should still handily beat my A's though, who are just all kinds of terrible.

[Oregon Nut Cups]

Agree with others in here that the Giants are the favorite in the West. Panda and Posey for full seasons will solve a lot of their offensive woes.

All that said, they're not without their flaws. Their top 3 pitchers are easily the best in the division (and probably second, to the Phillies, in baseball), but their #4 and #5 spots have some big question marks. No way does Vogelsong do anything like he did last year (and he's already hurt). Zito is the biggest waste of money in the history of sports. At closer, no one is gonna fear Brian Wilson's beard if he's constantly grooming it in the trainer's room (of course, closer is the easiest pitching position to replace).

It should be a nice, tight race, but I don't see Colorado having the pitching to keep up. I do like Nicasio as a sleeper SP, but he is coming off a broken NECK, so YMMV.

As for breakout teams elsewhere in baseball, I'm big on the Royals this year. I don't think they'll win the Central or anything, but with a breakout by Hochevar (finally), I think 2nd place is doable. I have no faith in the White Sox to do anything of note, new manager or not.

Obviously disagree with your last sentence but I'm with you on KC as well. Actually think Jonathan Sanchez joins Hochevar in having a useful season and I have as the deepest of sleepers in my 30 player roster league a guy in the mould of Filthy Sanchez: Felipe Paulino. He could easily take you to the WHIPping post, but 119K in 124 IP last year for KC with a palatable 4.11 ERA. Not predicting Cy Young, but feel he has a shot to be useful in deeper leagues. At his best, he could be Bud Norris 2011 with a higher, DH-inflated ERA.

[JoeC]

I think the red sox because somehow 4 letters thinks they will be 4th in the al east. I don't know how anyone will beat the angels though. Seriously like 110+ wins and unbeatable in a series

I'm thinkin' the Red Sox finish 3rd (again) in the AL East, especially if they don't acquire Oswalt. They did next to nothing to shore up their pitching and Beckett will regress. Beyond Ellsbury, that outfield will be putrid, especially with Crawford on the shelf for an unknown number of weeks. Shortstop is also a black hole (really weird to me that they didn't resign Scutaro).

Rays hitting will suck as usual (at least in comparison to the Red Sox/Yankees), but their starting pitching is money. Matt Moore is god. Yankees have enough pitching to go with their awesome hitting to win the division, but Rays should make it interesting.

Predicting the Angels to win 110 games is silly (they won 86 last year). Pujols, as good as he is, is not gonna add 24 wins. I have to assume you're being sarcastic, Bourne!

[JoeC]

Obviously disagree with your last sentence but I'm with you on KC as well. Actually think Jonathan Sanchez joins Hochevar in having a useful season and I have as the deepest of sleepers in my 30 player roster league a guy in the mould of Filthy Sanchez: Felipe Paulino. He could easily take you to the WHIPping post, but 119K in 124 IP last year for KC with a palatable 4.11 ERA. Not predicting Cy Young, but feel he has a shot to be useful in deeper leagues. At his best, he could be Bud Norris 2011 with a higher, DH-inflated ERA.

Great point. I like Sanchez too. Buckets of Ks near the end of your draft. Who could ask for more? Hard to believe that people actually LIKED him last year, huh? How things change with one bad season!

If KC could just develop 2 more quality starters, they could compete with the Tigers. Until they get more starting pitching though, second in the division is probably their ceiling.

[AdmiralTrey]

I think the red sox because somehow 4 letters thinks they will be 4th in the al east. I don't know how anyone will beat the angels though. Seriously like 110+ wins and unbeatable in a series

I'm thinkin' the Red Sox finish 3rd (again) in the AL East, especially if they don't acquire Oswalt. They did next to nothing to shore up their pitching and Beckett will regress. Beyond Ellsbury, that outfield will be putrid, especially with Crawford on the shelf for an unknown number of weeks. Shortstop is also a black hole (really weird to me that they didn't resign Scutaro).

Rays hitting will suck as usual (at least in comparison to the Red Sox/Yankees), but their starting pitching is money. Matt Moore is god. Yankees have enough pitching to go with their awesome hitting to win the division, but Rays should make it interesting.

Predicting the Angels to win 110 games is silly (they won 86 last year). Pujols, as good as he is, is not gonna add 24 wins. I have to assume you're being sarcastic, Bourne!

Pujols, C.J. Wilson, and Kendrys Morales will all be added to the Angels. You gotta figure Pujols is worth at least 7 WAR when healthy, and potentially more. C.J. Wilson put up 5 WAR as a pitcher last year, and Morales could be worth 4 WAR assuming he doesn't break himself celebrating again. On top of that, Howie Kendrick is in his prime and nearing his power prime, Trumbo is coming off a 29 HR rookie season at age 25, Bourjos and Aybar continue to grow, etc. The Angels are a legitimate contender for 100+ wins IMO. Maybe not 110, but I don't think that can be ruled out, either.

[Bourne]

All that said, they're not without their flaws. Their top 3 pitchers are easily the best in the division (and probably second, to the Phillies, in baseball)

I think the Angels are the second best staff in baseball. Weaver, Haren are studs and CJ Wilson and Ervin Santana are also solid for a series run in the playoffs.

I think the red sox because somehow 4 letters thinks they will be 4th in the al east. I don't know how anyone will beat the angels though. Seriously like 110+ wins and unbeatable in a series

Predicting the Angels to win 110 games is silly (they won 86 last year). Pujols, as good as he is, is not gonna add 24 wins. I have to assume you're being sarcastic, Bourne!

Admiral said it well. I don't think Pujols is worth 24 wins by himself. However, they will have more wins from both him and CJ Wilson. Their outfield will provide more runs and Morales can add a lot too. Pujols also makes the rest of the lineup all better and also makes pitchers able to be a bit more aggresive knowing their offense can score.

I do also want to add one additional point. Angels had 25 Blown Saves last year (tied for 3rd most in baseball). I think Walden might be able to settle in a bit more as closer, and there is not Rodney to start the season as closer either. That could certainly add a few wins.

[M.D.]

Kansas city is my sleeper pick for this year. They're pitching may hold them back from fending off the Tigers. But i think they have 2nd place written all over them.


1 Alex Gordon
2 Lorenzo Cain
3 Eric Hosmer
4 Billy Butler DH
5 Mike Moustakas
6 Jeff Francoeur
7 Salvador Perez
8 Johnny Giavotella
9 Alcides Escobar

Check out that projected lineup. Pretty decent. Definitely a team to worry about in 2013, once their young arms grow up.

[Bourne]

When your 3, 4 you face every day are Cabrera, Fielder; Mauer, Morneau; Konerko, Dunn; and A.Cabrera, Santana you better grow up quick, SON!