Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

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AdmiralTrey
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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby AdmiralTrey » Tue Feb 07, 2012 8:22 pm

Philly will still have arguably the best staff in baseball. Adding Pap will only help bring consistency to the bullpen. They will likely score less runs as an offense, but I doubt overall team wins will drop off much.

I'll be a homer and strongly disagree here. The Phillies have the best top 3 SP's in baseball by far, but the Braves have a much better bullpen and way more depth in the rotation. I think their staff is pretty solidly better than that of the Phillies.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby Paper Tiger » Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:04 pm

I'll give Atlanta the edge in the bullpen, but Bastardo and Pap will close out a ton of games behind the big three. As far as starting pitching goes, you can take any pitcher from the Atlanta staff and they would be no better than a four for the Phils.

Hudson is solid, Hansen has shown great skill but is coming off injury, Jurrjens is as likely to post a 4.00 ERA as he is a 3.00, Beachy is going to be a stud but is yet unproven in a full season. Minor has been average at best so far in the majors.

There are prospects on the horizon who may help the cause, but were really talking about what's on the page to begin the season. I don't need to push the merits of Doc, Lee, and Hamels. However, I think Worley could be a stud this season as well. He has all the upside of Beachy minus the strikeouts. So we're really talking about Blanton.

Blanton sucks. Every ATL pitcher is better than Blanton. However, with all offenses being equal I'll take Philly's staff to win a series outright and produce more wins overall.

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby AdmiralTrey » Wed Feb 08, 2012 4:49 am

Yeah, the Phillies' rotation is ridiculous - that much is pretty much indisputable. If one of their big three goes down, though, they're going to be hurting for innings. Worley has never thrown more than 160 innings in a season before last year and I think that his 3.86 August ERA and 4.05 September ERA show that. This year, having to pitch at the major league level all season, I think he'll have similar struggles at the end. And like you said, their 5th spot is going to be pretty bad, whether it's Blanton or Kendrick.

The Braves have some injury risks with Hanson and Jurrjens, but they can lose both for the season and still have highly talented pitchers replace them and possibly pitch just as well. Where the Phillies have 5 1/2 starters with MLB experience, the Braves have 8. And I know that Jurrjens' peripherals say that he should be a 4.00 ERA pitcher, but three of his four seasons he's had an ERA under 3.70. His career ERA is 3.40. I think that he could be a Matt Cain type player that constantly pitchers above what his FIP is supposed to be.


Papelbon and Bastardo are a good 8th and 9th inning combo for sure, but who do the Phillies have beyond that? Kendrick and Herndon aren't bad, but they're not great, either. The Braves have Kimbrel and Venters in the 8th and 9th, and assuming that their workload doesn't affect them, they're a better 1-2 punch than what the Phillies have. The Braves also have O'Flaherty, who just finished a season with an ERA under 1, and Peter Moylan, who should be completely healthy this year and has a career ERA of 2.60. Young guys like Cristhian Martinez and Anthony Varvaro came on and pitched as well as or better than Herndon did for the Phillies last year.

The Phillies' rotation is stronger overall because of how good their top pitchers are, but the Braves make up in depth what they lack in a true high end ace. Their bullpen is way deeper than the Phillies. I think that having Medlen in there as a long reliever will... relieve... some of the stress that Fredi put on his bullpen arms last year.

I agree that if their offenses are equal, the Phillies would likely win a series against the Braves because they can toss the aces out there often. The Braves' offense has more potential than the Phillies', though. If Heyward steps up and does what he is supposed to be able to do, and Prado can hit .300 like he's done his whole career, suddenly the Braves have a very formidable 1-7 and a pretty terrible 8-9.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby Oregon Nut Cups » Wed Feb 08, 2012 7:09 am

True, they have a bad staff, but there isn't exactly a world-beater in that division. Colorado will be within striking distance in July. They have plenty of talent to make the trade but it probably comes down to Wright's willingness to sign an extension. Ultimately we're talking about a trade that may or may not take place in six months :D .
Ah, that's very true. Though at this point, I'm still seeing a San Fran vs D-Backs division with an edge going to San Fran if they can get full and productive years out of Belt and Posey. It'll be interesting to see who gets in on the Wright sweepstakes. Though I look at the other team in NY with their aging 3B in decline and wonder... ;)
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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:04 am

The Braves have some injury risks with Hanson and Jurrjens, but they can lose both for the season and still have highly talented pitchers replace them and possibly pitch just as well.
That seems a bridge too far, especially in Hanson's case. He's a fairly elite pitcher. I doubt one of those younger guys will be able to put up equivalent stats. Might be true in Jurrjens' case though.
The Braves' offense has more potential than the Phillies', though. If Heyward steps up and does what he is supposed to be able to do, and Prado can hit .300 like he's done his whole career, suddenly the Braves have a very formidable 1-7 and a pretty terrible 8-9.
But this is basically the same offense that they had last year, right? No major additions. Seems like you're counting on multiple bouncebacks in order to see progression.

The Braves were 22nd in Runs Scored last year (641), the Phillies 13th (713). I think that gap will close, but I wouldn't put money on the Braves offense outscoring the Phillies offense in 2012.

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:07 am

Ah, that's very true. Though at this point, I'm still seeing a San Fran vs D-Backs division with an edge going to San Fran if they can get full and productive years out of Belt and Posey. It'll be interesting to see who gets in on the Wright sweepstakes. Though I look at the other team in NY with their aging 3B in decline and wonder... ;)
Ah yeah... interesting theory! With Posada and Montero gone, that really opens up the DH spot. One could definitely see Wright slotting into 3rd and ARod hitting the bench and the DH spot. He probably wouldn't like it, but he's gettin' paid so much, he should probably never complain about anything EVER (fat chance).

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:08 am

I guess you would have to compare WAR from 2011 to expected WAR for 2012. However, I doubt the Phillies win 102 games again. 90-93? Sure. 95-97? Maybe.
I think this is spot-on, Chris.

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby AdmiralTrey » Wed Feb 08, 2012 10:46 am

That seems a bridge too far, especially in Hanson's case. He's a fairly elite pitcher. I doubt one of those younger guys will be able to put up equivalent stats. Might be true in Jurrjens' case though.
Hanson is talented, for sure, but he hasn't had an ERA under 3.30 since his rookie year. He's a really good pitcher, but he's prone to get annihilated every now and then. I don't see why Delgado or Teheran can't put up a 3.40 ERA over an entire season.

But this is basically the same offense that they had last year, right? No major additions. Seems like you're counting on multiple bouncebacks in order to see progression.

The Braves were 22nd in Runs Scored last year (641), the Phillies 13th (713). I think that gap will close, but I wouldn't put money on the Braves offense outscoring the Phillies offense in 2012.
That depends on how long Howard is out... If he's out for most of the first half, I don't see the Phillies' offense being as good as it was last year.

It's not the same offense, really. Bourn leading off changes a lot of things for the better; having a real lead off hitter can make a pretty big difference in runs scored. He wasn't added in the off season, but he was in Houston for well over half of last year, so I'd count him as an addition overall. Frank Wren seems confident in multiple bounce backs this year, and even though I hate him, it's kind of hard not to expect bounce backs from Prado and Heyward. If everyone else on the Braves' roster does close to what they did last year and Prado and Heyward bounce back, the Braves will be a much improved offense.
Prado hit .300+ in three straight seasons before hitting .260 last year, so it seems very reasonable to expect a bounce back from him.
Heyward has all the talent in the world, but he seemed to lose his work ethic after his rookie year. I think that getting benched for Constanza really hurt him and motivated him to work hard this off season and get prepared. If you think that Jason Heyward is really going to hit .227 again then go for it, but I can't see that happening unless he is injured for the entire season. I will say that IF Heyward sucks again this year, he's wasting monumental talent. I'm interested to see how he handles having to fight to earn his respect back.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 12:36 pm

That depends on how long Howard is out... If he's out for most of the first half, I don't see the Phillies' offense being as good as it was last year.

It's not the same offense, really. Bourn leading off changes a lot of things for the better; having a real lead off hitter can make a pretty big difference in runs scored. He wasn't added in the off season, but he was in Houston for well over half of last year, so I'd count him as an addition overall. Frank Wren seems confident in multiple bounce backs this year, and even though I hate him, it's kind of hard not to expect bounce backs from Prado and Heyward. If everyone else on the Braves' roster does close to what they did last year and Prado and Heyward bounce back, the Braves will be a much improved offense.
Prado hit .300+ in three straight seasons before hitting .260 last year, so it seems very reasonable to expect a bounce back from him.
Heyward has all the talent in the world, but he seemed to lose his work ethic after his rookie year. I think that getting benched for Constanza really hurt him and motivated him to work hard this off season and get prepared. If you think that Jason Heyward is really going to hit .227 again then go for it, but I can't see that happening unless he is injured for the entire season. I will say that IF Heyward sucks again this year, he's wasting monumental talent. I'm interested to see how he handles having to fight to earn his respect back.
I agree with you that Heyward is really key to the Braves offense this year. It sort of amazed me how bad he was last year, considering all the hype. I would love to see him take a step forward, but I probably won't be the one betting on that in fantasy drafts (cause I'm a chicken, bawk-bawk!). :)

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Re: Have a bad feeling about the Philly's offense this year

Postby AdmiralTrey » Fri Feb 10, 2012 10:27 am


I agree with you that Heyward is really key to the Braves offense this year. It sort of amazed me how bad he was last year, considering all the hype. I would love to see him take a step forward, but I probably won't be the one betting on that in fantasy drafts (cause I'm a chicken, bawk-bawk!). :)
Yeah, Heyward wasn't a disappointment last year, he was an absolute tragedy. He wasn't just bad at the plate, he was fairly bad at defense, too. I remember going to a Braves-Rangers game during the summer and a ball going between his legs. Pretty much everything went wrong for him...
I'm not planning on betting too high on Heyward, either... I thought I stole him in a trade in the summer last year (I forgot who I traded for him, but it was some mediocre pitcher), but he never got things going again.

His constant nagging injuries are pretty irritating... I thought Chipper Jones was fragile, but next to Heyward, at twice the age, he seems pretty sturdy now. IF Heyward is healthy, he's almost got to produce, given his talent. If...

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs


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