Yeah, the Phillies' rotation is ridiculous - that much is pretty much indisputable. If one of their big three goes down, though, they're going to be hurting for innings. Worley has never thrown more than 160 innings in a season before last year and I think that his 3.86 August ERA and 4.05 September ERA show that. This year, having to pitch at the major league level all season, I think he'll have similar struggles at the end. And like you said, their 5th spot is going to be pretty bad, whether it's Blanton or Kendrick.
The Braves have some injury risks with Hanson and Jurrjens, but they can lose both for the season and still have highly talented pitchers replace them and possibly pitch just as well. Where the Phillies have 5 1/2 starters with MLB experience, the Braves have 8. And I know that Jurrjens' peripherals say that he should be a 4.00 ERA pitcher, but three of his four seasons he's had an ERA under 3.70. His career ERA is 3.40. I think that he could be a Matt Cain type player that constantly pitchers above what his FIP is supposed to be.
Papelbon and Bastardo are a good 8th and 9th inning combo for sure, but who do the Phillies have beyond that? Kendrick and Herndon aren't bad, but they're not great, either. The Braves have Kimbrel and Venters in the 8th and 9th, and assuming that their workload doesn't affect them, they're a better 1-2 punch than what the Phillies have. The Braves also have O'Flaherty, who just finished a season with an ERA under 1, and Peter Moylan, who should be completely healthy this year and has a career ERA of 2.60. Young guys like Cristhian Martinez and Anthony Varvaro came on and pitched as well as or better than Herndon did for the Phillies last year.
The Phillies' rotation is stronger overall because of how good their top pitchers are, but the Braves make up in depth what they lack in a true high end ace. Their bullpen is way deeper than the Phillies. I think that having Medlen in there as a long reliever will... relieve... some of the stress that Fredi put on his bullpen arms last year.
I agree that if their offenses are equal, the Phillies would likely win a series against the Braves because they can toss the aces out there often. The Braves' offense has more potential than the Phillies', though. If Heyward steps up and does what he is supposed to be able to do, and Prado can hit .300 like he's done his whole career, suddenly the Braves have a very formidable 1-7 and a pretty terrible 8-9.
10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez
SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs