3B getting better?

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Bourne
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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Bourne » Wed Feb 08, 2012 10:38 am

ARod games and ab since 2007. Age included.

31, 158, 583
32, 138, 510
33, 124, 444
34, 137, 522
35, 99, 373

That is why I am concerned about beltre's age. Prior to those years ARod was a horse.

I am planning to take zimmerman or Lawrie in the 4th. Zimmerman was ranked among 3b
7, 5, inj, 2, 2, inj. He should be top 3 the next two years with a chance of inj increasing each year. I like to go big or go home. Sports are not about playing it safe.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

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ChrisV82
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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby ChrisV82 » Wed Feb 08, 2012 11:41 am

Prior to those years ARod was a horse.
And he dated horses, too!

Image
I like sports with balls in them.

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 12:31 pm

Prior to those years ARod was a horse.
And he dated horses, too!
Oh hey now! :)

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 12:40 pm

I think the flaw in my projections is that I'm taking the injury history of Wright and Zimmerman into account but not Beltre's. That's me being a fanboi there. :)

Shandler gives all 3 a Health grade of "C", so I guess I have to change my view a bit and start to downgrade Beltre's projections this year if I'm going to be fair.

And doing that means, yes, taking him in the 2nd would probably be unwise.

The bright side of that though is now I'm free to take Stanton. Mmmmm.... power! :lol:

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby pythons007 » Wed Feb 08, 2012 1:05 pm

I think the flaw in my projections is that I'm taking the injury history of Wright and Zimmerman into account but not Beltre's. That's me being a fanboi there. :)

Shandler gives all 3 a Health grade of "C", so I guess I have to change my view a bit and start to downgrade Beltre's projections this year if I'm going to be fair.

And doing that means, yes, taking him in the 2nd would probably be unwise.

The bright side of that though is now I'm free to take Stanton. Mmmmm.... power! :lol:
I think Beltre is going to have a good year too and I just made an off season trade for him. However, realistically, my projections are 80/25/90/.280. That's what I'm looking for him to do. If he does better than that just makes my team that much better.

Just like I would if I was keeping Pujols. I'd project him at 100/30/100.300. I'm trying to project him at a low end and everything higher is gravy. When I'm drafting him team I'm mentally trying to hit numbers with my line up with basically their floor.
12 team Roto
C Kelly
1B Bellinger
2B Hiura
3B Rendon
SS Baez
OF Betts
OF Robert
OF Buxton
UTIL Guerrero Jr.
UTIL Santander
BN McCutchen, Hampson, Robles

SP Lynn, S. Gray, Morton, S. Sanchez, Means, El. Hernandez
RP Pomeranz, W. Smith, Montero, Bradley

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby BigSeph » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:17 am

I don't know how someone can talk about ARod's decline as some sort of justification for taking Zimmerman.

They are both injury prone.

Zimmerman is more like Eric Chavez than Beltre. Chavez had his fair share of injuries and he had one last hurrah at 27 years old, cranking 27 homers while his ops dropped 100 points. And even in that year his BA and OBP dropped substantially as he started swinging for the fences. Over the next 4 years his HR totals went to 22, 15, 2 and then 0.

I'd suggest that anyone considering Zimmerman (not in my league of course) be very careful, because his power took a hit last year and while he may hit 27ish homers this year (in his age-27 season), his OBP and BA may take a dive in the process. You guys can go look at the comparison between Chavez and Zimmerman if you want.

And as far as A-Rod winding down, I submit to you the case of one Edgar Martinez, who at age 37 had 37 HR and 145 RBI. I don't think ARod will be valuable consistently for the next 3 years in a row, but he is capable of shooting a massive load onto the stat sheet in one of those years. And he's been swimming in platelets all offseason.

My $.02 and I like Zimmerman and can't stand ARod as players. But as for myself and Mike Singletary, we want winners.

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Bourne » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:53 am

ARod argument was why beltre's age is significant. Had nothing to do with pro zimmerman. But is rather have a guy entering rather than leaving his prime in this situation. I am more looking at Lawrie though each day.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:16 pm

Just to wrap this topic up from my perspective, I went back and took a new look at my projections not only for Beltre, but also for Wright and Zimmerman. As I said, I found that I was unfairly penalizing Wright and Zimm for having injuries over the past few seasons, but not applying that same penalty to Beltre. That was just me being a fanboi of Beltre. :)

Mulling it over, I came up with this revised projection for Beltre, which might seem a bit more realistic to the community at-large:


Adrian Beltre 0.301BA 30HR 108RBI 83R 1SB 508AB

The reduced projection is mainly based on the reduction in his expected at-bats for the 2012 season. I also increased my projections for Wright and Zimmerman.

I still think there's some fanboi favoritism left in the current projection, but I want to thank those who brought me somewhat back to reality as to my initial projection. I think you guys were right that I had a bit of a blind spot when it came to Beltre and a overly-optimistic projection can lead to mistakes in drafting, which obviously I want to avoid.

Thanks for the spirited discussion (even RandomItalicizedVoice, who gave up in frustration!).

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Shivdaddy » Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:47 pm

12 man league with no CI BS. Points, h2h

These are the 3B in order of points last year till you get to the hurt/Lawrie. I count 12 people I would be happy with at 3B, I dont like Bonifacio or Roberts. It just seems so deep to me this year, and will the the main reason I do not take Longoria with my 11th or 14th overall pick.

Bautisa
Young
Ramirez
Beltre
Longo
Reynolds
*Bonifacio
Youk
*Roberts
Sandoval

Zimmerman
Aroid
Wright
Lawrie


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