3B getting better?

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JoeC
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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:09 pm

Funny, I just found this article that was written in January 2011 by one of the FanGraphs guys and he basically makes my case for me... except with actual statistics and all! :) Also, since this was 2011, this guy wrote this article BEFORE Beltre's great season last year in Texas.

Pretty impressive.

http://bloombergsports.mlblogs.com/2011 ... as-ranger/

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby RandomItalicizdVoice » Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:21 pm

I give up dude. There's no discussion with you. Nobody's points against your Beltre projection mean a thing to you, so I'm not sure why you're even bothering to discuss it on forum. Your mind is clearly made up, and there is no discussing Beltre with you...so I'll stop wasting my time here.

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:38 pm

I give up dude. There's no discussion with you. Nobody's points against your Beltre projection mean a thing to you, so I'm not sure why you're even bothering to discuss it on forum. Your mind is clearly made up, and there is no discussing Beltre with you...so I'll stop wasting my time here.
You're looking at this wrong then. I enjoy the give-and-take of point-counterpoint. I don't expect to "win" these debates. Rather I expect to either be further convinced of my opinion or to reformulate it based on others' opinions. In fact, I've already lowered my projection for Beltre this year due PRECISELY to this particular discussion.

And I've stated repeatedly, these are just my opinions and, though dearly held, they are worth about as much as sawdust in a woodshop. No one can possibly be "right" when it comes to projecting performance. We're all taking educated guesses, even the 'perts. And that's what makes all this so fun. If we were debating facts, there wouldn't be anything to debate at all, because you can't have two opinions on what 2 plus 2 equals.

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby ChrisV82 » Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:50 pm

I was somewhat enjoying this.
I like sports with balls in them.

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Bourne » Tue Feb 07, 2012 5:54 pm

I was originally going to just compare Zimmerman and Beltre, but I thought all the top 3b (minus Lawrie who lacks data) would be more fun and present a better picture.

Crunching Numbers: (based on bbref.com)
Upcoming age and last three years' totals listed in Grey's order.
Bautista: 31, 1418 ab, 268 runs, 382 hits, 110 HRs, 267 RBIs, 22 SB, .269 ba
Longoria: 26, 1641 ab, 274 runs, 451 hits, 86 HRs, 316 RBIs, 27 SB, .275 ba
Wright: 29, 1511 ab, 235 runs, 429 hits, 53 HRs, 236 RBIs, 59 SB, .284 ba
Beltre: 33, 1525 ab, 220 runs, 452 hits, 68 HRs, 251 RBIs, 16 SB, .296 ba
Sandoval: 25, 1601 ab, 195 runs, 474 hits, 61 HRs, 223 RBIs, 10 SB, .296 ba
Zimmerman: 27, 1530 ab, 247 runs, 453 hits, 70 HRs, 240 RBIs, 9 SB, .296 ba
ARod: 36, 1339 abs, 219 runs, 371 hits, 76 HRs, 287 RBIs, 22 SB, .277 ba
ArmRam: 34, 1336 abs, 187 runs, 382 hits, 66 HRs, 241 RBIs, 3 SBs, .286 ba
Youk: 33, 1284 abs, 244 runs, 372 hits, 63 HRs, 236 RBIs, 14 SBs, .290 ba

Bautista and Longoria are 1 and two for their HRs and Bautista's steady power increase. Wright is listed third because of his balance (speed and avg with some power). I remember reading last year he was to 10 in all 5 stats but not first in any stat back in 2010. Based on these numbers, if you like Beltre, you might as well wait several rounds and take ARod. Beltre has more RBIs than Zimmerman, but Zimmerman has more Runs and average while still carrying power. Unless I decide to pass on a 1B in the first round and take Longo, I am targeting Zimmerman (Lawrie is my backup plan) in hopefully the fourth. Zimmerman's age and stats clearly (to me) put him better than the 3 (wright, beltre, and sandoval) ranked above him.

What do you think?
Last edited by Bourne on Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:17 pm

I was originally going to just compare Zimmerman and Beltre, but I thought all the top 3b (minus Lawrie who lacks data) would be more fun and present a better picture.

Crunching Numbers: (based on bbref.com)
Upcoming age and last three years' totals listed in Grey's order.
Bautista: 31, 1418 ab, 268 runs, 382 hits, 110 HRs, 267 RBIs, 22 SB, .269 ba
Longoria: 26, 1641 ab, 274 runs, 451 hits, 86 HRs, 316 RBIs, 27 SB, .275 ba
Wright: 29, 1511 ab, 235 runs, 429 hits, 53 HRs, 236 RBIs, 59 SB, .284 ba
Beltre: 33, 1643 ab, 220 runs, 452 hits, 68 HRs, 251 RBIs, 16 SB, .275 ba
Sandoval: 25, 1601 ab, 195 runs, 474 hits, 61 HRs, 223 RBIs, 10 SB, .296 ba
Zimmerman: 27, 1530 ab, 247 runs, 453 hits, 70 HRs, 240 RBIs, 9 SB, .296 ba
ARod: 36, 1339 abs, 219 runs, 371 hits, 76 HRs, 287 RBIs, 22 SB, .277 ba
ArmRam: 34, 1336 abs, 187 runs, 382 hits, 66 HRs, 241 RBIs, 3 SBs, .286 ba
Youk: 33, 1284 abs, 244 runs, 372 hits, 63 HRs, 236 RBIs, 14 SBs, .290 ba

Bautista and Longoria are 1 and two for their HRs and Bautista's steady power increase. Wright is listed third because of his balance (speed and avg with some power). I remember reading last year he was to 10 in all 5 stats but not first in any stat back in 2010. Based on these numbers, if you like Beltre, you might as well wait several rounds and take ARod. Beltre has more RBIs than Zimmerman, but Zimmerman has more Runs and average while still carrying power. Unless I decide to pass on a 1B in the first round and take Longo, I am targeting Zimmerman (Lawrie is my backup plan) in hopefully the fourth. Zimmerman's age and stats clearly (to me) put him better than the 3 (wright, beltre, and sandoval) ranked above him.

What do you think?
I've got a hard date for the shooting range that I have to leave for soon, so I can't go into a detailed analysis of your numbers and conclusions, but the things that jump out at me are: it's hard to compare players over a time span where some of them have played relatively full seasons and others haven't (though a positive side effect of this is that it may point out which players are more consistently healthy).

And, for your numbers, how do you get Beltre with a BA of .275 over the last 3 seasons? Judging by the raw numbers, that seems a bit unpossible:

2009: 449AB .265BA
2010: 641AB .321BA
2011: 487AB .296BA

Looks like his "average" BA over the last 3 years should be nearer .300 than .275.

And, of course, some injury years hurt more than others, such as including Beltre's 2009, when he only hit 8 home runs in the season because of shoulder surgery and ball trauma. If we take the last 2 years (which is what I'm basing my increased valuation of Beltre upon) instead of the last 3 years, then I think Beltre rises like cream towards the top.

I think this is logical to do, since IMO recent performance trumps career performance and is more predictive of near-future performance.

I'll look at this a bit deeper after my shooting session. :)

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Bourne » Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:05 pm

I just did hits/abs or 452/1643 or .275

I recounted the numbers and Beltre only had 1525 abs. This gives him a .296. If you take out Beltre's '09 then you can take out Zimmerman's '11. you can't take out a single year. I would also counter that Beltre is 33 and going down from his prime while Zimmerman is only entering his prime. Beltre's avg adjustment sets him above ARod by 20 points. However, Zimmerman has 3.66 RBIs less than Beltre but 9 runs more than Beltre per year over the past 3 years. Beltre definitely shows he gets less runs than Beltre. If you want to give Beltre the SB nod (though age could negate this). With power and avg a wash, I will take 9 runs, lose 4 RBIs, and gain a round.

With this extra round (3-4 round instead of 2-3 round) I can draft a better combo of two players. This is where it really comes down to why Beltre is not worth it. (ONC pointed out the later round value was his point too.) I can get Mike Stanton, CarGo, or McDread in the second. You get Holliday, Victorino, or Jennings (looking at Grey's top 20 OF). There are infinite other combos, but you should get a better player in the second than you can in the third. Beltre isn't a marginally better player than the 3B you can get in the 3rd/4th.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby Bourne » Tue Feb 07, 2012 8:16 pm

I ran two other comparisons: Ryan Zimmerman 09-10 vs Beltre 10-11

Zim: 1135, 195, 339, 58, 191, 6, .299
Beltre: 1076, 166, 333, 60, 207, 3, .309

so 195/58/191/6/.299 vs 166/60/207/3/.309

Beltre gives some more RBIs (as you pointed out by who is in front of zimmerman in the nats lineup). Zimmerman provides more runs.

Another number to look at as I recalled from my mention of marginal cost/marginal profit. In baseball we have WAR.
Zimmerman 7.3, 7.2, 2.5 vs Beltre 2, 7, 5.7 Just the two years we were looking at above, I have Beltre is 13.7 while Zimmerman is 14.5. Zimmerman is worth almost a win more than Beltre. Again, I add in the value at rounds 2-3 vs 3-4 and I think Zimmerman wins again.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:41 am

I would also counter that Beltre is 33 and going down from his prime while Zimmerman is only entering his prime.
I seriously don't understand this logic. Beltre just had the best two years of his career (discounting that weird 2004 season which seems like a total outlier at this point) and yet everyone on this thread is talking about his decline! When the season starts, we'll only be 6 months from the end of the 2011 season. Can you seriously say that Beltre's skills are going to have deteriorated that much in 6 months? It just seems like many are seeing "33" and ignoring his actual output at ages 31 and 32.

I understand that players are more likely to get injured as they get older, but Beltre has been a fairly durable player over his career. He doesn't seem to be breaking down quite like, say, an ARod is. And it's not exactly unprecedented for a guy to continue hitting well into his mid-30's (Luis Gonzalez comes to mind... David Ortiz, of course). I mean, 33! That's really not that old, peoples! I would love to be 33! :D
However, Zimmerman has 3.66 RBIs less than Beltre but 9 runs more than Beltre per year over the past 3 years. Beltre definitely shows he gets less runs than Beltre. If you want to give Beltre the SB nod (though age could negate this). With power and avg a wash, I will take 9 runs, lose 4 RBIs, and gain a round.
Yes, this comes down to what your projections are for each player. You're projecting them to have relatively equal output, while I have Beltre beating Zimmerman handily in power (34HR/118RBI vs. 26HR/94RBI). Some of this difference comes from the better home park for Beltre as well as the better lineup around him. Some also comes from my projection that Beltre will have 580 ABs this season and Zimmerman only 537. The AB projection is based upon Zimmerman's injury history, which I think is well-established at this point. He just seems a rather fragile player. Of course, I am willing to be proven wrong on this point. Perhaps this is the year Zimm sheds that label in my eyes.
With this extra round (3-4 round instead of 2-3 round) I can draft a better combo of two players. This is where it really comes down to why Beltre is not worth it. (ONC pointed out the later round value was his point too.) I can get Mike Stanton, CarGo, or McDread in the second. You get Holliday, Victorino, or Jennings (looking at Grey's top 20 OF). There are infinite other combos, but you should get a better player in the second than you can in the third. Beltre isn't a marginally better player than the 3B you can get in the 3rd/4th.
Oh gawd... you just said the magic words: "Mike Stanton" Drooooool! Would love to get Mike Stanton. And yes, would probably have to take him in the 2nd to get him. I felt a little uncomfortable taking a guy who's likely to hit around .250 in the 2nd round, but man, that power... so tempting!

You've definitely given me something to think about. I'll have to do some private mocks to see if your point bears out (btw, none of those OFs you mentioned (Holliday, Victorino, Jennings) is on my "to draft" list). It would be very difficult for me to get over my aversion to Zimmerman (which is somewhat similar to my aversion for DWright), but I might be able to swallow that distaste for a chance to get one of the best power hitters in the game. :)

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Re: 3B getting better?

Postby JoeC » Wed Feb 08, 2012 9:48 am

Hrmmm... looking at my own argument, perhaps I'm showing too much favoritism to Beltre in those AB projections. He did, after all, have less than 500 at-bats in 2 of the last 3 years. I'm ignoring my own pet formula for projecting at-bats (add together at-bats for last 3 seasons, then divide by 3) in Beltre's case, which is nothing other than pure bias. :)

Hrmmm... maybe I've got to reformulate my projections a bit.


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