Alexi.....getting far too much love

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Alexi.....getting far too much love

Postby nmdunkel » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:08 pm

I feel this guy gets far too much credit.

His OBP is .317. FUUUUUUGLY. He had 13 SB's, but....caught stealing 9 times! So when he actually CAN get on base, he's getting nailed over half the time he runs. So don't think he's gonna be a leadoff guy, or a high upside SB threat.

His splits indicate that he's at his best against lefties, away, at night (but more power at home). Not really that relative to my argument...but interesting.

He hits his best on the following counts: 0-0 (.387), 1-1 (.442) and 3-1 (.800, but only in 5 AB's, which means he's getting behind in the count a LOT). This indicates he's a dead fastball hitter, as all these counts are generally fastball counts, as well as a first-pitch hitter (fastball here, too). He's a terrible 2 strike hitter (.198), and those are swinging strikes too. No discipline.

So...I'd say the book on him is that he's a free-swinger looking fastball and fastball early. So you're probably going to see a lot more inside fastballs (so he can't extend his arms for power, and to keep him off the plate), setting him up for the junk off the outside corner that he's weak against. Which means more HBP....never good for aggressive young hitters.

I don't see his HR's falling off....but I think of him more as a Lastings Millidge guy than a Fonso Soriano guy. Lots of unheralded (well that's not fair...he IS Cuban) hitters do well the first time around the league.....but I don't feel that free-swingers in particular do well after pitchers start looking at ways to set them up. frustrated does he get when he can't get anything to hit? Does he catch the Francoeuritis and start flailing at everything? 'Cause he sure hasn't proven he can take the freebie.

I think he's a great long-term investment, especially after he puts some more meat on that frame and learns how to adjust. But I think he's far too risky to take in the 3rd or 4th rounds. The first 5 rounds are all about minimizing your downside. I can't justify reaching for him in any format. Someone will probably grab him earlier than you anyway.

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Re: Alexi.....getting far too much love

Postby Grey » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:21 pm

Are you Rudy in disguise? He's also not crazy about him. I'll be honest, barring Kinsler, he's probably the riskiest pick I like in the first four rounds. Shortstop being so shallow really boosts him for me, but you make a lot of solid points.
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Simply Fred
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Re: Alexi.....getting far too much love

Postby Simply Fred » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:54 pm

The good news is that there will be a lot schmos drafting him WAYYYY too early. Right on target, nmdunkel.

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Re: Alexi.....getting far too much love

Postby IowaCubs » Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:24 pm

Wow, great points, but one thing you forgot to mention... Ozzie Guillen is certifiably CRAZY. He's the same guy who batted Juan Uribe leadoff for like three months once. I think that Alexei getting 1/2 his AB's in the 2-hole is very interesting, even if it makes no sense for the Sox to actually do this.

He also plays his home games in the Cell, and will be batting many of his ab's in front of Carlos Quentin. I like him a lot in the late 4th, and .320 OBP aside, he's a magical 27 years old. I'm buying.
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Rudy Gamble
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Re: Alexi.....getting far too much love

Postby Rudy Gamble » Thu Mar 12, 2009 2:54 pm

I'm with you nmdunkel.

Although I will say that the quant analysis I did with Point Shares ( ... s-10-team/) has Alexei ranked #37 and that's with a # of pitchers above him that wouldn't be drafted as high. His SBs are nothing great but the combination of power and Runs/RBI potential provides significant value at either the 2B or SS position. (Note that Marcel/CHONE/ZiPS projections for him only give him 400-450 ABs when there's no reason to assume he shouldn't have all those counting stats would be upped by 20%...)

I believe that one should avoid 2B/SS altogether (as much as possible) in Rounds 3-8 as they tend to be overvalued and, once most teams have overreached, there are bargain opportunities that arise from Rounds 9 and on.

But, from a pure projected value standpoint, Alexei is actually being properly valued right now and is worthy of a top 4 round pick...

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