RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Discuss your mock drafts, your real drafts, what's on draft... Anything to do with drafting is found here.
pharmdriz
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby pharmdriz » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:26 pm

Thanks so much for plugging and chugging for us, Rudy. I'm not entirely sure that my team is a 2nd place team, but I'll take it. Of course, if BigFatHippo's predictions are true, it looks like I'd have nothing to worry about, right? I think I'm one good RP away from a projected 1st. That WHIP isn't going to lower itself.

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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby big o » Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:56 pm

am i reading this correctly ?

webb 16 wins
halladay 15
c.c 14

everyone else 13 wins or less ?

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Rudy Gamble
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Rudy Gamble » Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:13 pm

Glad to help!

Big O - Yeah, Marcel's win totals are the lowest out there. I checked CHONE (baseballprojection.com) - which I'm still messing around with for Point Shares - and they are also low (tops is Sabathia at 16 and Johan at 15). I wouldn't worry about them too much as Wins are pretty random - all you can really do is focus on ERA/WHIP/Ks...

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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Freak » Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:37 pm

Broxton + Balfour = 8 saves?

Aren't they both the closer as of now?

big o
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby big o » Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:21 pm

rudy :
i'm going to want to do some hitting analysis .
so , before i lose you for the evening , will you briefly explain
the "reliability" rating , please ?

how many dumb questions am i allowed ? <=== does that one count ? <== does this one cou///xxx/// ... ah , nevermind .

p.s.
this marcel guy seems a bit of a downer .
would love to see him cage-fight bill james .... (from what little i know of both) .

thanx .

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Rudy Gamble
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Rudy Gamble » Thu Jan 01, 2009 11:28 am

Freak - I wouldn't read too much into the Saves. Marcel is based on past years - it doesn't factor in opportunity which is the #1 determinant for saves. We'll adjust for that when we project save point shares in Feb time frame.

Big O - Marcel's reliability rating is just a number from 0 to 1 with 1 being the most reliable and 0 being basically league average totals. It's driven by the consistency of the player's past 3 years. Someone like a Josh Hamilton would seemingly have a low rating where Mark Teixeira or Carlos Lee would have high reliability. Ideally, you're drafting a core of reliable players and then finding some high upside guys to complement them.

There are some good discussions on his site - insidethebook.com - that detail why his numbers are lower. I just ignore the absolute numbers and focus on how they compare across players.

The guy behind it (Tom 'Tangotiger' Tango) is having a contest where various 'experts' will create a fantasy baseball draft list and he'll run 1000 simulations to see which draft list is better. As of now, we'll be participating. Should be interesting to see how it turns out...

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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby sean1981 » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:06 pm

Glad to help!

Big O - Yeah, Marcel's win totals are the lowest out there. I checked CHONE (baseballprojection.com) - which I'm still messing around with for Point Shares - and they are also low (tops is Sabathia at 16 and Johan at 15). I wouldn't worry about them too much as Wins are pretty random - all you can really do is focus on ERA/WHIP/Ks...
Rudy,
Thanks for running the projection. As for not worrying about Ws, I would throw ERA into that same category. For my money, K/BB and HR/9 are the key indicators of the starting pitchers that I want. Any thoughts? Are there similarly indicative stats on the hitting side?

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Rudy Gamble
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby Rudy Gamble » Fri Jan 02, 2009 8:54 am

Rudy,
Thanks for running the projection. As for not worrying about Ws, I would throw ERA into that same category. For my money, K/BB and HR/9 are the key indicators of the starting pitchers that I want. Any thoughts? Are there similarly indicative stats on the hitting side?
Hey Sean -
K/BB and HR/9 are great ways to judge pitchers. In terms of fantasy stats, I think WHIP is more predictive than ERA - and if a simulation like this netted a poor team WHIP, I'd assume the ERA would be in the tank too.

For hitters, I look at K Rate (K/AB) and BABIP to test AVG (note that most projection systems - Marcel excluded - do this). For HR, I look at doubles and Fly Ball rate. The higher both are, the higher the HR potential. For SB, I just look at past performance and then think "Does this person need to steal?" and "What's the likelihood they get a gimpy leg and stop running?".

Hope this helps -
Rudy

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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby big o » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:37 pm

hey guys :
wanted to bring you up to date on some new changes over at couchmanagers :
1) added MI and CI to the position search ... (ok)
2) added e-mail me every pick feature .... (meh)
3) added full color draft .... (ding ding ding... we have a winner !! ... especially for you cut & paste guys)

when do you guys want to do another slow mock ?

is it too early yet ?

i have done some other on-site slow mocks , but they're not as much fun as ours . everybody just hits and runs . no one hangs around to chat . i miss the camaraderie of our group and enjoyed very much the late-night left coast company , as well as talking to that kiwi guy.

do we want to keep it the same size ? the same time controls ?

big o
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Re: RAZZBALL READER 's SLOW MOCK DRAFT

Postby big o » Wed Jan 07, 2009 4:38 pm

oops ...
3) added full color draft CHART


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