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Jose Bautista

Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:32 pm
by mtw02
Time to sell high on him?

Or are we looking at a possible 35/100 kind of guy here? Who is buying this?

I guess the ugly side could be a .250 average.

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Fri Jun 04, 2010 3:41 pm
by Grey
I said to sell him last week, so yeah I don't buy it.

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 4:59 am
by mtw02
And on cue, he laughs at you Grey - 2 more HRs!


Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 5:17 am
by jewtangclan03
Of course the problem with Bautista is what can you sell him for. You're probably better off holding the guy unless you get a starting caliber player in return.

I know 2009 Mark Reynolds didn't exactly come out of nowhere like this, but maybe this homer binge continues in a similar way. Considering that we are now 2 months into the season, I don't think Bautista falls off the earth a la Shelton from a few years ago.

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 8:40 am
by Grey
Bautista's HR/FB is 22%, his career 11%. He might do it for another week, maybe another month, shoot, maybe two months, but at some point regression will set in.

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 12:13 pm
by thepizzaman
I'm thinking he pulls a Brandon Inge with the early season power and then incredibly sucks the entire 2nd half

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:30 pm
by LMack
My problem believing this guy is that hes sucked for the past 6 years at multiple levels of major league baseball. The only time he's ever had an ISO close to this is a 5 game stint with the Pirates AAA team in 2008. He is what he is, a guy having the streak of his career.

Re: Jose Bautista

Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2010 2:42 pm
by mtw02
Everyone knows he'll regress. Pointing it out isn't useful.

The point about what can be had for him is perhaps best....selling high only makes sense relative to what you can get vs. the value of keeping him. Trading difficulty/activity varies from league to league.

Even Grey's argument re: his fly ball rate - will he regress to his norm or somewhere in between? In which case, there is a good shot he'll be a 30+ hr guy. Why sell that? In most leagues this guy is a 4th OF and that's incredible value.

Also working in his favor - he's improved his walks and cut down on his strikeouts. His BABIP is currently below his career average. According to Fangraphs, he showed some of this burst last September (and it continued in spring training). Further I've read about how he's changed his stance - perhaps there is something to this? All this bodes well to 'even' out the insane pace and fears of him falling off a cliff.

Fair/unfair? Am I drunk on the Bautista punch and missing something?