Great advice guys, thanks.
I'm not high on SJax at all but given the hate for him and LT2 in my league, I could foresee having the pick between those two guys, Slaton, Gore, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo, MBIII at the 10th pick. Very hard for me to differentiate which is the "best" available RB. Who do you guys like among those names, who seem to project to be available at the 10th pick? LT seems like the most arguable boom or bust pick, just ahead of DeAngelo, in the first round.
And how do you rank AJ vs Moss vs. Megatron this year? I think I would have to go by strength of team and QB to separate, thus: Moss, AJ, Megatron in that order.
PPR i like Fitz - Andre - Calvin - Moss.
Non-PPR i like Moss - Fitz - Andre - Calvin.
If LT falls to you at 10, you should be dancing around the living room as you call out his name (or wherever your draft is held). Even SJax i'd have a hard time passing up. DeAngelo and Johnson are great boom or bust picks. Too risky to waste a #1 on though IMO. They will still be sharing carries. White will still be getting a lot of the TDs in TEN, and i'm expecting a bigger role in CAR's offense for Jonathan Stewart. Gore and Slaton are exactly what i'd expect to see at your spot. you said your league takes QB's early, so i'd think 7 RB's and 2 QB's gone when it's your pick. That leaves it right around Johnson/SJax/Gore/Slaton. Gore/Slaton are probably the best picks there, but i REALLY like SJax's potential.
Back to the strategy...
At the first turn you have picks 10/11. You'll likely have your pick of the litter at WR, or the #7-9 RBs available. For my point values, i'll use my Yahoo PPR league final stats from last year (It's 1/2 point per reception). The #8 RB was LT with 255.6. The #1 WR was Andre with 282. Fitz #2 with 279.1.
Now, assuming there's about 7 QBs taken before the 3/4 turn comes (30/31 overall picks), since you said a lot are gone by the end of the 3rd, you'll likely have about 7-8 WRs gone, and about 14-15 RBs gone. The 15th RB was SJax with 214.1, and the 18th RB was Brandon Jacobs 211.5. RB #13-19 were only separated by a total of 8 points, which is right where your picks would be. The #10 WR was Marshall with 216.1.
Looking at it from a mathematical standpoint, you're gonna fill RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 with your first four picks. 3 ways to do it from this draft position.
1 - RB/RB, WR/WR
- This give you 2 guys around 250-260 @ RB, and 2 guys around 210-220 @ WR. This gives you 930
2 - RB/WR, RB/WR
- You'll get LT with 255 and Andre with 282, then you'll get SJax with 215 and Marshall with 215. Total: 967
3 - WR/WR, RB/RB
- 2 WR's with 280 each, then 2 RB's with 210-215. Total....985.
As Doc explained in his most recent article about WR's, there's less injury risk, less risk of them tanking, and they are more consistent. It's much easier to predict who will be the top WRs, than who will be the #5-10 RBs. You know AD, Mo-Jo, LT, etc. will be top 10. But i took Slaton 9th round last year, and Pierre Thomas 20th round. Both ended up being top 13 RBs. DeAngelo, Forte, Chris Johnson, and Leon Washington were all likely taken after the 30th pick in your draft last year, and all ended up being top 12 backs. that's 6 of the top 13 backs, almost half, were taken at your 3/4 turn or later. Who was the 8th RB taken in your league last year? Addai? Grant? LJ? Barber? All finished lower than the 6 I just mentioned.
Going WR/WR at the turn will not only give you the best value, but is a much safer strategy