Search found 318 matches

by OaktownSteve
Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:58 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Risk Management
Replies: 7
Views: 1699

Re: Risk Management

the question is does Shandler's risk measure prove to have any predictive power over time? I would guess that you'd have to look at a group of players over/under performance relative to an independent prediction model like Oliver or Steamer and then cross reference that against their preseason risk ...
by OaktownSteve
Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:10 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Risk Management
Replies: 7
Views: 1699

Re: Risk Management

so the real debate I have with myself is whether or not these perceived risks have any value. Are they predictive in any way or are they simply narrative noise that gets in the way of other types of analysis that filters out these types of bias. The regression risk is probably the only one that can ...
by OaktownSteve
Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:03 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Risk Management
Replies: 7
Views: 1699

Risk Management

Started talking about this a little in the comments yesterday. This year so far there seems to be a perception that there is more risk in the draft. I think that from a risk management standpoint you could argue that there is always the exact same amount of total risk in every draft simply because i...
by OaktownSteve
Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:53 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?
Replies: 8
Views: 1884

Re: SP streaming and auction strategy--where's Simply Fred?

How many reserve slots? Any innings or GS started limits?
by OaktownSteve
Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:21 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: The Syndicate
Replies: 5
Views: 1360

The Syndicate

The Syndicate This is a theoretical proposal for competing in the NFBC. This year a partnership of two guys won the $125k main event prize. I've seen a lot of partnerships be successful in that format and I got to wondering if you could expand that concept from a partnership to a larger enterprise. ...
by OaktownSteve
Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:13 am
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Beltran Myers Personality Test
Replies: 18
Views: 4504

Re: Beltran Myers Personality Test

Beltran Cargo Puig Brown Darvish Rizzo Mauer Davis Fernandez Bruce +6 I do tend to like homers and I don't worry that much about positional scarcity (probably because I play in a relatively shallow league for offense.) The hardest choice was CarGo vs. Prince. Definitely took a lot of upside and yet...
by OaktownSteve
Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:10 am
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Beltran Myers Personality Test
Replies: 18
Views: 4504

Re: Beltran Myers Personality Test

Wil Myers or Carlos Beltran Carlos Gonzalez or Prince Fielder Jason Kipnis or Yasil Puig Dominic Brown or Shane Victorino Yu Darvish or Max Scherzer Eric Hosmer or Anthony Rizzo Matt Wieters or Joe Mauer Chris Davis or Bryce Harper Justin Verlander or Jose Fernandez Giancarlo Stanton or Jay Bruce I...
by OaktownSteve
Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:22 pm
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Keeping One Eye Open…for Six Months!
Replies: 7
Views: 1511

Re: Keeping One Eye Open…for Six Months!

We were pretty comparable, Fred. My 158 game streamer average was .230/63/13/54/8 in 434 games But I'm nor sure looking at a weighted average tells the whole story. The story of streaming is really around boosting counting stats at the expense of average. Rudy may have had a higher 158 run rate but ...
by OaktownSteve
Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:20 am
Forum: Baseball - General Player Discussion
Topic: Keeping One Eye Open…for Six Months!
Replies: 7
Views: 1511

Re: Keeping One Eye Open…for Six Months!

Fred this is on point. I've been on the same topic. I had 2119 games played this year. I used 183 players and 118 pitchers. Stream stream stream.

I'm going to run some numbers when I'm freed up. My games played by regulars versus semi-regs versus streamers. Stuff like that.
by OaktownSteve
Wed Dec 25, 2013 5:52 pm
Forum: What else is there?
Topic: Best to you Albright
Replies: 1
Views: 3217

Best to you Albright

Thanks for providing us with this little town square

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